In its Sept. 12 Crop Production report, USDA said U.S. corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast and down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the U.S. since 2006.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, corn yields are expected to average 122.8 bushels/acre, down 0.6 bushel from the August forecast and 24.4 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Corn area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.
“The Sept. 1 corn objective yield data indicate the lowest number of ears per acre since 2005 for the combined 10 objective yield states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin),” the report said.
Referring to August weather conditions, USDA said “limited, early-month precipitation in portions of the Corn Belt was beneficial to late-planted fields, but did little to help drought-affected, mature corn.” USDA noted that “producers in some states chose to chop corn for silage or bale it for hay as it would provide better nutrition for livestock given crop conditions this year.”
USDA estimated soybean production at 2.63 billion bushels, down 2 percent from August and down 14 percent from last year. Based on Sept. 1 conditions, soybean yields are expected to average 35.3 bushels/acre, down 0.8 bushel from last month and down 6.2 bushels from last year.
Compared with last month, USDA’s yield forecasts for soybeans are lower or unchanged across the Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt “as lingering drought conditions continued to hamper yield expectations.” Soybean area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 74.6 million acres, unchanged from August but up 1 percent from last year.
All cotton production is forecast at 17.1 million 480-pound bales, down 3 percent from last month but up 10 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 786 pounds/harvested acre, down 4 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 16.5 million 480-pound bales, up 12 percent from 2011. Pima cotton production, forecast at 657,000 bales, is down 23 percent from last year.
Rice production is forecast at 196 million cwt, up 3 percent from August and up 6 percent from last year. USDA said rice planted area is now estimated at 2.70 million acres, up 1 percent from the June estimate and up slightly from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.68 million acres, up 1 percent from June and 2 percent higher than 2011.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, the average U.S. rice yield is forecast at a record high 7,334 pounds/acre, up 138 pounds from August and up 267 pounds from last year. Record high rice yields are forecast in Louisiana and Texas.