High grain and oilseed prices support another year of large plantings for wheat, corn, and soybeans, according to USDA Chief Economist Joseph W. Glauber.
Speaking at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va., on Feb. 21, Glauber said U.S. growers will plant 96.5 million acres of corn in 2013, down slightly from last year’s 75-year high. Glauber estimated the 2013 U.S. soybean crop at 77.5 million acres, which, if realized, would equal the record high level reached in 2009.
All wheat plantings in the U.S. are projected at 56 million acres, up 300,000 acres from 2012. Farmland planted to hard red winter wheat is down 0.7 million acres from 2012 due to drought, but that decline has been offset by increased seeding of soft red winter wheat, which is up 1.3 million acres from 2012. Spring wheat seedings in 2013 are projected to decline due to more profitable returns for corn and soybeans, Glauber said.
As for cotton, Glauber pegged the U.S. upland cotton crop for 2013 at 9.8 million acres, down 2.3 million acres from 2012, due to lower expected returns for cotton relative to other crops. Glauber said cotton acreage in the Southeast and South Central regions will likely be reduced in favor of corn and soybeans, while cotton growers in the Southern Plains will likely turn instead to wheat, corn, and sorghum.
“Despite a historic drought affecting much of U.S. agriculture, the U.S. agricultural economy is strong and, in aggregate, farm incomes are near record highs,” Glauber said. “The outlook for 2013 calls for a rebound in crop yields resulting in record production levels for corn and soybeans, and by autumn 2013, lower prices for most grains and oilseeds. Lower crop prices should lead to lower feed costs and improved profitability for the livestock, dairy and poultry sectors.”
Glauber said combined acreage for wheat, corn, and soybeans in the U.S. in 2013 will likely approach the 230 million acres planted to those crops in 2012, which was the highest since 1982. He said Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) enrollments for 2013/14 are down again, to 27.1 million acres, with total CRP area declining 9.7 million acres from its peak in 2007/08.
Larger domestic and world supplies will fuel lower farm prices for most grains and oilseeds in 2013, he noted, with an expected return to trend yields likely to push corn prices down significantly as stock levels rebuild in 2013.
Corn prices are forecast to average $4.80 per bushel in 2013/14, down 33 percent from 2012/13’s record levels and, if realized, the lowest average price since the 2009/10 marketing year. Similarly, Glauber said larger supplies and increased carryout will weaken soybean prices to $10.50 per bushel, down 27 percent.
Cotton prices are expected to increase by 3 percent to 73 cents per pound for 2013/14, reflecting tighter domestic supplies. Glauber said rice prices are projected at $15.20 per cwt, up 30 cents from the midpoint of 2012/13’s price, in part reflecting smaller domestic supplies and ending stocks.
USDA’s latest crop projections and supply/demand estimates will be discussed in detail by Dr. Gerald Bange, chairman of USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, on Feb. 27 at the Green Markets 2013 Agriculture and Fertilizer Outlook webinar.
Bange will be joined by Tom Blue, senior fertilizer industry consultant with Blue, Johnson and Associates, and Bart Pescio, president of Yara North America, in the 90-minute live interactive event. For more information, visit www.FertilizerPricing.com/SpringOutlook2013.