U.S. Gulf: Granular barge prices spanned a broader range last week as they moved up. Sources attributed the uptick to concerns about getting barges to their locations before upriver closings. Some, remembering last fall, noted lower water levels upriver, and feared those could become an issue once again.
Prices were reported to have started off as low as $280-$281/st FOB before moving up to $294-$296/st FOB by the end of the week.
Despite the uptick, market bears said that once this flurry of prompt barges beats the river close, buyers will lose their incentive to pay a premium. They also argue that there are enough imports on the way, particularly from China, to continue to pressure the market. They expect a retreat in pricing for October and November barges.
Prills were weaker last week, and were called $315-$325/st FOB. Sources said lower numbers may be on the horizon as competition has been gearing up. As a result, new trades may edge closer to granular.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt remained soft at $325-$345/st FOB regional terminals, but sources reported little in the way of new business to test the market.
Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market continued to be quoted in the $325-$345/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in St. Louis and the higher numbers in Iowa on a spot basis. One Missouri contact pegged the dealer market at the $335/st FOB level in his trade area last week.
The Tulsa, Okla., urea market had reportedly slipped to $330/st FOB on the low end.
California: The granular urea market remained at $420-$440/st FOB in California, with delivered prices referenced in the $475-$510/st range before discounts, depending on location.
Pacific Northwest: Granular urea pricing had slipped to $380-$400/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, down $20/st from last report. Delivered urea was also down, with sources quoting the dealer market consistently at $400-$415/st DEL in the region, depending on location.
Western Canada: Granular urea was quoted at $505-$510/mt DEL in Manitoba, $510-$515/mt DEL in Saskatchewan, and $515-$530/mt DEL in Alberta and British Columbia, but sources reported no business at that or any level.
One regional source speculated the prices would have to drop to the mid-$400s/mt DEL to attract any new sales.
Middle East: Sorfert in Algeria sold its first cargo at a price sources say might indicate a rebound in the urea market. The winning bid came in at $320/mt FOB, presumably with Europe as its final destination.
At first sources wondered why anyone would pay so much when Egypt closed at $285/mt FOB the previous week. The answer came in a second Egyptian sale at $315/mt FOB.
While few are ready to say that the market has definitely found its floor, many were happy to see stronger prices pop up in both a newcomer to the market – Algeria – and an established supplier like Egypt.
Even though Oman closed a deal at $280/mt FOB in the Japan-aid tender for Pakistan, Arab producers continue to claim the market is really in the low $300s/mt FOB.
One trader noted that the producers are always ready to claim a higher price when they sell to a small, high-risk location such as Sudan. They are less likely, however, to acknowledge when odd deals plunge the price.
Sources say the deal by Oman and the sales to Thailand all point to prices in the $280s/mt FOB. However, there is a consensus that the low-$300/mt FOB prices paid by other buyers should be included. One trader noted that the price consideration does not include the contracted tons, which are estimated to be in the upper $280s/mt FOB at this time.
Prilled urea is pegged at $280-