Central Florida: Weather conditions in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. were favorable for harvest at mid-month, and farmers in some areas were already beginning to cut their crops.
Growers were not buying fertilizer yet as a result, so dealers were continuing to hold off as well in the hope that phosphate prices would deteriorate even farther. There was concern, though, that the wait-and-see strategy could backfire if dealers wait too long to start buying. Transportation bottlenecks could develop, and prices might move up as a result. Timing could be a delicate balance.
One Central Florida trader who sells in the Northeast and into Ohio and Indiana said he planned to make buys from terminals and warehouses in the Midwest and truck to his customers, because the price would wind up being lower than sending phosphate from Florida by railcar.
The Central Florida DAP market remained at a flat $410/st FOB, although no new spot sales were found. MAP continued to bring a $20/st premium over DAP at Central Florida.
U.S. Gulf: As a result of fewer trades, NOLA DAP prices actually moved up a bit from the previous week by $5-$10/st FOB. However, forward sales for October were about the same as the previous week, so the blip could be short lived.
Many in the industry expect business to get a boost at The Fertilizer Institute’s World Fertilizer Conference in Montreal Sept. 22-24. Considering the fall season should be at the gate and ready to take off, that could very well happen.
Vessels carrying MAP from OCP were unloading last week, and more were expected by the end of the month and into October. In addition, sources said Koch had brought in a vessel of DAP from Mexico and was aggressively marketing the product.
Several other sources said the free fall that has been going on in the international market had slowed or stopped as of last week. It appeared the impact of India’s lower rupee was wearing off, or had reached its maximum negative impact.
Low water levels on the lower Mississippi River were creating problems at Blytheville, Ark., where it was difficult to unload NOLA phosphate barges at docks. The situation was not as severe as last year during the 2012 drought, but still serious. Other areas were not reporting any major problems.
The nation’s corn crop is expected to yield about 13.84 billion bushels, according to USDA’s September forecast, which was up 0.6 percent from its forecast in August. On the futures market, prices for corn and soybeans were lower as a result, while prices for wheat went in the opposite direction.
Corn for December 2013 was $4.605/bushel, down from $4.6425/bushel one week earlier, while corn for December 2014 fell to $4.9875/bushel from the previous week’s $5.03/bushel.
The soybean price for November 2013 moved to $13.5825/bushel, down from $13.89 bushel a week earlier. Beans for November 2014 were posted at $11.91/bushel, also lower than the prior week’s $11.9325/bushel.
Wheat for December 2013 firmed to $7.0125/bushel from the previous week’s $6.93/bushel, while wheat for July 2015 firmed slightly to $6.9775/bushel from $6.89/bushel.
The NOLA DAP barge price range last week came in with a wider spread of $370-$380/st FOB, compared to the previous week’s range of $365-$370/st FOB. Forward sales in October, while not considered prompt, were as low as $365/st FOB.
Prices should begin to stabilize during the next few weeks as the fall application season starts, said most sources.
MAP prices were quoted in the $397-$400/st FOB NOLA range. MAP was still in short supply last week, but prices should fall during the next several weeks as imports hit the market.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $435-$455/st FOB in the region, depending on location. MAP