U.S. Gulf: Prompt granular barge prices continued to move up last week. Early week trades were called as low as $298/st FOB. However, by late Thursday, sources were calling new business in the $315-$318/st FOB range for prompt business. Others were skeptical, saying they were seeing resistance at the higher numbers. Most continued to call the recent business trader-to-trader transactions driven by a tighter international market. While exports can still be made from Chinese bonded warehouses, many were betting that there would not be enough product there to sufficiently meet the needs of buyers in India, Pakistan, and elsewhere.
Prills continued to be called stronger at $310-$315/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was steady at $320-$340/st FOB, with the low end FOB Cincinnati, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt: The urea market in the Western Cornbelt ticked up just slightly from the last report. Sources quoted granular urea at $325-$335/st FOB in the region last week, with the low in southern Missouri and the upper end in the Iowa market.
Southern Plains: Sources said supplies of urea and phosphates have loosened up in Tulsa, Okla., as demand tapers off for winter wheat applications. As a result, spot pricing had also backed off from highs achieved in mid-October, when supplies were temporarily tight.
Granular urea pricing was quoted at $325-$335/st FOB the Tulsa market, down roughly $10/st from last report. The Houston urea market had also fallen roughly $10/st, to $340/st FOB.
South Central: A run-up in NOLA urea barge pricing in recent weeks has fueled a price uptick out of terminals in the South Central region as well, though several sources questioned the validity of the NOLA price increase based on “very little liquidity and very little trading.”
Sources quoted the granular urea market at $330-$340/st FOB regional terminals last week, up $10-$15/st from last report, with the low again reported out of the Memphis market.
Southeast: The granular urea market had reportedly slipped to $355-$365/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, down $5/st from last report.
High winds in early November whipped up high seas from the southern Florida coast up to South Carolina, but most parts of the region enjoyed suitable weather for harvesting last week.
North Carolina growers had fully 98 percent of the corn in the bin by Nov. 3, along with 19 percent of the soybean crop. The regional peanut harvest had progressed to 82-94 percent complete in the region by that date.
The region’s cotton harvest continued to trail the average pace considerably, however, with progress as of Nov. 3 rated at just 28-35 percent complete in the region, depending on the state. Cotton quality varied widely, with good or excellent ratings assigned to just 36 percent of the acreage in South Carolina, 47-48 percent in Georgia and North Carolina, 70 percent in Alabama, and fully 80 percent in Virginia.
With growers fully focused on the regional harvest, sources reported little in the way of fertilizer activity in early November.
India: India Potash Ltd. called a tender to close Nov. 11.
Sources began analyzing the Chinese bonded warehouse situation alongside Iranian production, and compared those numbers with estimates of potential Indian demand.
The bottom line is that the supply does not match the demand.
Sources estimate India still needs to buy about 2.5 million mt of urea by the end of the year. The best guess estimate of Chinese urea that might be available for export is about 1 million mt. At the same time, Iranian supply through December may be no higher than 300,000 mt.
At the same time India is looking for tons, Pakista