U.S. Gulf: Granular prompt barge prices were on a roller coaster last week, with the actual range for the week spiking, then dipping, and ultimately moving back up again.
Early week trades were put as high as $425/st FOB, if not higher. Prices fell sharply early Tuesday, however, dropping to $380-$385/st FOB before working their way back up on Thursday to $400-$403/st FOB.
Many factors were cited for the volatility, with a main one being the news that Iranian tons might be easier to trade in the world market. Sources also said there was more urea offered in a Sri Lankan tender than expected. Some were also starting to count import vessels coming into the U.S. in January-March, and many felt the market would be well supplied.
Others said it was simple profit taking after a huge run-up in prices that had puzzled many from the get-go. Some noted as well that heady demand from Texas and the Southern Plains was simply not matched by upriver buyers. There were lower-priced Chinese tons on the market as well.
Rumors that CF was having production problems at Donaldsonville also got some play in market chatter, with some pumping up the significance and others downplaying it. CF said it does not comment on plant outages.
Prills continued to strengthen, with the latest business called $390/st FOB. The Lifeco plant in Libya, which had been in startup mode, was back down again last week.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing was reported firmly at the $450/st FOB level in the Eastern Cornbelt, up another $10-$30/st from the previous week, depending on location.
The $450/st FOB level was also reported last week FOB Baltimore, Md., and Savannah, Ga.
Western Cornbelt: Sources continued to report firming prices for urea and phosphates in the Western Cornbelt, along with a limited amount of new buying activity at the retail and wholesale level. “Some are finally pulling the trigger since spring is closer,” said one source.
The granular urea market was reported at $430-$450/st FOB in the region last week, up another $10-$20/st from the previous week, with most sources calling the market firm at the upper end of that range.
California: Sources reported rapidly firming urea and phosphate markets in California. “Changes are in the wind,” said one contact at midweek, “and there could be more changes as the week progresses.”
That was particularly true of urea. Sources said the Stockton market had firmed from $430/st FOB the previous week to $445-$465/st FOB early last week, reflecting a $65/st increase from late December pricing levels. By Jan. 23, the Stockton market had reportedly firmed again, moving to the $470-$480/st FOB range from some suppliers.
Pacific Northwest: The granular urea market was quoted at $480-$490/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., up a full $90/st from late December pricing levels.
Delivered urea was also up dramatically in the Pacific Northwest, with sources quoting the market in a broad range at $475-$510/st DEL in the region, depending on location.
Western Canada: The granular urea market was quoted at $590-$615/mt DEL in Western Canada, up some $70-$90/mt from late December pricing levels.
Indonesia: Pusri concluded its auction without selling everything it offered.
Dreymoor picked up one cargo at $413.50/mt FOB under the action agreement. Another cargo was sold under separate negotiations to Graceland for late February shipment at $415/mt FOB. Sources speculate the cargoes are heading for Australia.
The prices reflect a growing confidence in the market. Some are saying, however, that this confidence will last only a few more weeks unless more buyers step in.