Central Florida: The Central Florida market saw little activity for the week, as many industry players spent several days out of pocket at the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference.
Resellers reported little-to-no nearby interest, commenting that farmers simply had no current crops that required the application of phosphates. Demand would come later, sources said, though some questioned whether the current state of the corn market, mired in the low $3.60s/bushel in anticipation of a record harvest, would be a drain on end-user interest in the fall.
“At $3.50, (growers) don’t want to put anything on fields that they can’t make a good deal on,” a source said. Resellers voiced additional concerns that purchasing for September and October could prove less than stellar because of speculation that Mosaic is unlikely to offer any kind of summer fill program to the Central Florida market, since such a discount plan would only compete with Mosaic’s own more lucrative export business.
In the absence of confirmed transactions, the price of DAP in the Central Florida market was unchanged at $435-$440/st FOB, with truck-loaded product said to comprise the top end of the market. MAP was expected to command a $20/st FOB premium over DAP.
U.S. Gulf: Sources described a “sleepy” barge market for the week, weighed down by the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference, which saw many industry players out of the office through Wednesday.
Prices were thought to remain firm despite the lack of movement, though few, if any, nearby transactions were confirmed to have taken place. Much of the phosphate-related talk at the conference reportedly focused on logistics and diminished inventories.
Lower corn prices resulting from an anticipated record harvest were thought to put many end-users off from making big purchases in the current season, and dealers were of course unlikely to fill their bins until relatively positive that end-users would be willing to pony up.
Market insiders put nearby domestic material in a range of $440-$445/st FOB based on the most recent activity, though sources said the next round of business was unlikely to take place anywhere below the $445/st FOB mark.
Light-colored Chinese DAP due for late August discharge was quoted around $435/st FOB, and dark DAP of open origin was called closer to $440/st FOB. Imported material of both Chinese and Mexican origin was expected to be offered at NOLA, but traders had yet to hear of any Russian-sourced material being offered.
One domestic producer offered September DAP barges at $455/st FOB, but no transactions were confirmed at that level. Sources were divided on pricing for September and October, with some predicting a slide toward the $430/st FOB level for domestic DAP, and others making a case for tons priced north of $450/st FOB.
Proponents of the latter cited strength in the export market that was expected to continue through October, along with the expectation that domestic buyers would have to keep pace with Latin American bidders through that market’s peak season in order to keep domestic product onshore.
Physical tons of dark Chinese DAP sold in a range of $440-$445/st FOB for September, while paper trades for the same month were recorded around $445/st FOB.
Chinese phosphates continued to represent one of the biggest unknowns in the current market. Speculation flew regarding the actual tonnage that would see eventual NOLA discharge rather than be diverted to increasingly pricey Latin American markets.
Further complicating matters was a pair of typhoons battering China in recent weeks. The first storm was the strongest typhoon to hit China in four decades when it made landfall two weeks ago, and sources fretted over the storm’s potential effect on p