U.S. Gulf: Prompt granular barges were fairly quiet last week, with one source calling them “stagnant.” Prices have fluctuated week-to-week for some time, but this week they remained at approximately $347-$360/st FOB. Sources said the range reflects varied freight considerations.
The last done on the prill market was called $345-$350/st FOB, though sources said those numbers may be hard to repeat for the next round of business.
Eastern Cornbelt: The urea market in the Eastern Cornbelt was pegged at $415-$435/st FOB regional terminals for limited tons.
Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market remained in a broad range at $395-$425/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the St. Louis, Mo., market pegged at $415-$420/st FOB last week.
Effective Sept. 2, Agrium’s granular urea postings moved to $425/st FOB North Dakota terminals at Alton, Colfax, Scranton, and Carrington; $425/st FOB Marion, S.D.; and $430/st DEL in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas. Those levels were up $15/st from Agrium’s July 1 postings in those locations.
Southern Plains: The granular urea market was pegged at $425-$430/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., down some $15-$20/st from pricing levels three weeks earlier.
South Central: Sources reported minimal movement in the South Central region as growers focus on harvest, but concerns remained about logistics. “I’m guessing that this huge crop will put even more stress on our transportation system going forward,” said one regional contact. “That being said, today’s farmer can certainly hold a lot more of his crop on the farm.”
The granular urea market had reportedly narrowed to a range of $410-$420/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low reported in Memphis.
Southeast: Granular urea pricing had reportedly firmed to $425-$430/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, with no tons available at Savannah, Ga., last week.
Sources reported some nitrogen movement on hay and pastures in early September, but activity was otherwise quiet. “There is no enthusiasm with low crop prices right now,” said one regional contact.
India: Sources report that Indian buyers visited China last week. One industry watcher noted that this move replicated trips in the past when Indian buying representatives visited Russia, Ukraine, and Arab Gulf producers.
The industry is waiting for the next Indian tender. Sources speculate that the announcement from MMTC could come as industry leaders travel to San Francisco for the TFI World Fertilizer Conference. Others say the announcement will come after the conference. Either way, industry watchers are agreed that MMTC will have to call its tender before Sept. 15.
The mid-September deadline for calling the tender is dictated, say sources, by the Chinese export window. Beginning Nov. 1, Chinese urea will be automatically more expensive because of additional export tariffs imposed on the product. Tender award winners will have to move quickly to secure the tons from a producer, make sure it is shipped to the bonded warehouses, and secure a vessel in time to avoid the extra taxes.
How many tons MMTC will take in its tender will not only depend on the price of the product, but also on how many tons the country needs. Sources report that not all the awards issued in the IPL tender may be completed in time.
Reportedly, some traders are still having a hard time fulfilling their awards. The shortfall is up for debate. Some have argued that IPL will be short by 300,000 mt, while others say the deficit will be closer to 600,000 mt.
What does appear to be clear, however, is that trade