USDA’s Sept. 11 Crop Production report forecasts the 2014 U.S. corn crop at 14.4 billion bushels, up 3 percent from both the August forecast and from 2013. Corn yields are expected to average 171.7 bushels/acre based on conditions as of Sept. 1, up 4.3 bu/a from the August forecast and a full 12.9 bu/a above the 2013 average. If realized, USDA said this will be the highest corn yield and production on record for the U.S.
State-by-state yield forecasts in the Cornbelt show corn coming in a 194 bu/a in Illinois, 185 bu/a in Iowa, 184 bu/a in Indiana, 179 bu/a in Nebraska and Ohio, and 169 bu/a in Missouri. Iowa’s yield forecast was unchanged from August, but the other Cornbelt states all showed increases, with the Missouri forecast rising by 9 bushels from August, Illinois and Nebraska by 6 bushels, Indiana by 5 bushels, and Ohio by 2 bushels.
USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, also released on Sept. 11, raised the U.S. corn ending stocks figure by 194 million bushels, to 2,002 million bushels, the highest level since 2004/05.The WASDE report also lowered the projected season-average corn farm price by 40 cents/bushel, to $3.20-$3.80/bushel.
U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record 3.91 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the August forecast and up 19 percent from last year. Based on Sept. 1 conditions, USDA said soybean yields are expected to average a record high 46.6 bushels/acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month and up 3.3 bushels from last year. Soybean area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at a record 84.1 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but up 11 percent from last year.
The WASDE report projects soybean ending stocks at 130 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month due to higher soybean exports and crush. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9.00-$11.00/bushel, down 35 cents/bushel on both ends of the range.
USDA pegged all cotton production in the U.S. at 16.5 million 480-pound bales, down 6 percent from the August forecast but up 28 percent from 2013. Cotton yields are expected to average 803 pounds/acre, down 2 percent from last year. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.2 million bales, with the marketing-year average farm price for cotton pegged at 58-70 cents/pound.