U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Nothing new was reported in these markets last week, though some speculated that the $70/mt run up in the Tampa price for October might continue into November.
October NYMEX natural gas settled Sept. 25’s at $3.971/mmBtu, up from Sept. 18’s $3.910/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: The ammonia market was quoted at $655-$670/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for prompt or fall prepay tons, depending on location. Sources reported some inquiries from “tire kickers” for spring 2015 ammonia tons, but no actual numbers were confirmed.
Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was steady at $630-$660/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the upper numbers in Iowa and Missouri. Delivered ammonia remained in the $670-$690/st range in Missouri, depending on point of origin.
Southern Plains: The ammonia market remained at $600-$620/st FOB regional production points in the Southern Plains, with the pipeline terminal market pegged at $630-$635/st FOB in Kansas.
Low crop prices and ongoing logistics issues continued to temper expectations for fall applications on rowcrop ground. “Farmers are understandably not getting excited about fertilizer,” said one regional contact. “We are seeing very little interest in fall-applied ammonia for corn ground. Corn projections for 2015 are negative, so what’s there to get excited about?”
South Central: Anhydrous ammonia remained firm at $600-$620/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low FOB Memphis, Tenn.
Middle East: Apparently supply and demand have gotten out of whack enough that spot cargoes for November are being offered at $600/mt FOB and up. At this point, sources say nothing has been done at that level, but it is only a matter of time.
The rising price expectations are putting a strain on downstream users. One trader wondered how long Amsul and AN can be produced if ammonia keeps getting more expensive.
Black Sea: Sources report all is quiet in Yuzhnyy, mostly because there is little, if anything, to sell. Ukrainian material is non-existent because of plant closures related to the fighting between the Ukraine government and forces loyal to Moscow.