Central Florida: Following a busy lead-up to the New Year, business in the Central Florida DAP market has been slow in 2015, traders said. “There’s no interest right now,” said one contact. “It’s been insanely quiet.”
Despite the demand dip, however, many expect prices to tick up in the near term, citing supply competition from the firming Tampa export market.
Truck-loaded DAP was called $435/st FOB for the week, up from $430-$435/st FOB previously. DAP delivered by rail was quoted around $430/st FOB, though some believed $425/st FOB was still possible.
Recent hikes in the price of railcars out of Florida may also have served to tamp down demand, one source reasoned. The increases were said to add $5-$10/st to interstate transactions.
DAP in the Central Florida phosphate market was quoted in a range of $425-$435/st FOB last week, unchanged from the previous report. MAP, said to be a nonfactor, was quoted at a $20/st FOB premium to DAP.
U.S. Gulf: NOLA activity was quiet last week. Offers abounded, sources said, though few barges actually changed hands. More buyers than sellers were present in the market for a second consecutive week, some noted, and despite the imbalance, barge pricing was supported by the perception of thin supply.
Mosaic reported that it was sold out of spot material for January and February loading, despite having returned to full production as of Jan. 1. With a “modest” expected lineup of import vessels slated for arrival in the first quarter, near-term phosphate availability was seen as tight.
The barge price was called $440-$445/st FOB for January and February, and benefitted from ongoing strength in the international market, said one industry veteran, who predicted that domestic levels would shadow the international price arc upward. With some domestic producers reportedly giving the international market supply preference in the current climate, NOLA players will be forced to keep closer pace with international price swings if they hope to attract adequate supply, the source said.
With that in mind, the barge market remained stuck in no-man’s land, some said: undersupplied for the short term, with too little price strength to attract foreign imports to make up the difference. The current $445/st FOB DAP ceiling was shy of the $450/st FOB or so needed to begin drawing international interest. “That price is close, but (it) doesn’t hunt yet,” one contact said.
Little activity was reported out of terminals last week. However, one contact remarked on a modicum of “application going on in the Midwest where the weather has allowed.” Additionally, others spoke of scattered wheat field application.
Some mentioned the reappearance of Chinese DAP and MAP offerings at NOLA, priced respectively at $430 and $435/st FOB. Sources believed the material was left over from a fall vessel, however, and did not represent an impending discharge.
The price of MAP continued to erode relative to DAP. Most traders called MAP slightly higher than DAP for the week, at $440-$450/st FOB.
The NOLA DAP barge market was quoted in a range of $440-$445/st FOB, a change from the prior week’s $435-$447/st FOB. DAP for March loading was put at $445/st FOB, and nearby domestic MAP was called $440-450/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $470-$480/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP pegged in the $485-$500/st FOB range in the region.
10-34-0 was tagged at $540-$550/st FOB for limited tons in the region.
Western Cornbelt: DAP pricing had reportedly ticked up to $470-$475/st FOB most warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, with the low end of the range reflecting a $10/st i