U.S. Gulf/Tampa: May Tampa business was concluded last week at $465/mt CFR, down $20/mt from April’s $485/mt CFR. Sources had expected the drop in light of lower international pricing.
May NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.531/mmBtu on April 23, down from April 16’s $2.684/mmBtu.
Eastern Cornbelt: The ammonia market remained at $625-$640/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the lower numbers reported in Illinois on a spot basis. Sources reported supply outages last week at several locations in the Illinois market due to heavy preplant movement. The dealer market in Indiana was pegged at $630-$640/st FOB, with the low reported at Huntington.
Western Cornbelt: Preplant ammonia movement was winding down in the Western Cornbelt last week. Sources quoted the terminal market at $610-$620/st FOB in Iowa and Missouri, depending on location, with the low end of the regional range pegged at $590-$600/st FOB in Nebraska.
Northern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $600-$620/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with the low reported in the Twin Cities and the upper end FOB Velva, N.D. Delivered ammonia was pegged at the $635/st level in the North Dakota market last week.
Great Lakes: Wisconsin sources reported that a period of heavy preplant movement had resulted in sold-out ammonia inventories at several terminals in northern Illinois. Michigan sources pegged the dealer market last week at $635/st FOB Courtright, Ont., and Huntington, Ind.
Middle East: Producers really aren’t saying a lot about their current situation. Rumors abound that Sabic has at least two cargoes it is trying to unload, but Sabic says it is sold out and has nothing to spare for the spot market.
No matter how the supply looks, sources say the price of ammonia in the area remains lower than producers would like. Based on the delivered price into East Asia, sources estimate the netback to the Arab producers remains in the $380s/mt FOB.
Black Sea: The actual price out of the area is in dispute. Sources working prices back from Morocco say the netback is about $350/mt FOB. Other sources figure the price is closer to $390/mt FOB. And the producers are holding firm to the idea the floor is $400/mt FOB.
Backing up the producers’ claim is the latest price out of Tampa. Take back freight, they say, and the Tampa price is a Yuzhnyy equivalent of $400-$405/mt FOB.
The key term, said one source, is “equivalent.” Industry watchers say even though there is no longer an organic link between Yuzhnyy and Tampa pricing, the two prices often offer an opportunity to calculate appropriate pricing levels in each location.
The lack of any new business is adding to the confusion of exactly where the price is sitting this month. Few are willing to firmly state that the Yuzhnyy equivalent from Tampa should be used as a hard and firm guidepost. Most say it is a useful mathematical model to get in the right neighborhood.
By the middle of May, however, everyone should have a better idea of where Yuzhnyy prices are headed, based on actual business. Turkey is expected to make a few purchases for the first half of next month. When that happens, says one trader, the industry will most likely see prices settling in the $380s/mt FOB.
For now, no one other than the producers seems to accept $400/mt FOB and up as a pricing idea. Many are using the $390s/mt FOB in their models, with a softening trend to occur in May.
India: Prices seem to be hovering around the $447-$449/mt CFR range. However, sources are reporting some special deals coming in about $20/mt cheaper.
The lower-priced product may