Central Florida: Transactions on the Central Florida phosphate market were reported at $360-$370/st FOB for DAP, down from $370/st FOB at last report. MAP was $370-$380/st FOB, down from the prior week’s $380/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf: A Feb. 3 announcement that Mosaic would curtail phosphate production by up to 400,000 st in the first quarter was met with measured excitement in the NOLA barge market.
Poised to record a small price drop for the week prior to the news, the prompt DAP market edged higher in the hours following the announcement, to a range of $312-$325/st FOB. New offers were generally quoted around $327/st FOB on Feb. 4, although some were offering as high as $335/st FOB, sources said.
First-quarter paper firmed as well, coming in at $315-$326/st FOB, although March physical was reported as low as $305/st FOB for DAP and MAP.
Mosaic’s announcement comes amid tumbling global phosphate prices. NOLA DAP is down approximately 28 percent versus February 2014, and MAP’s decline has been even more pronounced. Extreme weakness in the Brazil MAP market – down more than 35 percent from the year-ago – played a part as well, limiting opportunities for offshore sales.
“Mosaic believes that current market prices do not reflect the value we see for our products,” a Mosaic spokesperson said. “We are not participating nor selling at the low price seen in Brazil today, and at NOLA in the last few weeks.”
While some market players were quick to point to the curtailment as sparking the market, others were unconvinced. “The curtailment announcement is mostly smoke and mirrors. It won’t have much effect,” said one trader, while simultaneously acknowledging the firmer market. “Paper jumped a little overnight. I think possibly (it was) some short-covering just in case this Mosaic thing has an impact.”
While stagnating commodity levels and prodigious NOLA supply have commonly taken the blame for the recent soft market, observers have increasingly pointed to delayed spring purchasing for the continued weakness.
“It was a supply issue, but lately that’s shifted,” said one trader. “There’s just not enough demand out there to get rid of everything that’s available. What we need now is to get into the season, get things going.”
Additional supply is expected soon at NOLA. Sources anticipate a Moroccan cargo on or around Feb. 10, and a vessel loaded with 30,000 mt of DAP and MAP was reportedly due in March.
The NOLA DAP market was quoted in a range of $312-$325/st FOB, up from $310-$323/st FOB at last report. MAP was called flat at $315-$328/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: The regional DAP market remained at $355-$365/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP roughly $5/st higher than DAP.
The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $510-$515/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Sources pegged the DAP market at $360-$370/st FOB most regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP $5/st higher than DAP.
10-34-0 continued to be quoted at $475-$500/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa.
Southern Plains: Sources quoted the DAP market at $350-$360/st FOB Catoosa, down $15-$20/st from mid-January pricing levels. Although there were still reports of suppliers “waiting for barges to arrive” after earlier high-water restrictions, other sources said more tons seemed to be available at the port in early February. MAP was quoted in the same range as DAP at the port.
The 10-34-0 market had reportedly slipped to $475-$495/st FOB in the Southern Plains, down some $10-$20/st from last report. &l