U.S. Gulf: Prompt granular barges moved last week, starting the week as low as $187/st FOB and then climbing to $205/st FOB before firming near that number.
Sources said there was a lot of activity, with CF coming into the market to buy four or five barges, but not at the high end of the range. By Thursday, February product was being offered at $206-$208/st FOB and March at $210/st FOB.
Prills remained hard to gauge, with the last done piece of prompt business called $225/st FOB. Second-half February tons were called $220-$230/st FOB. Overall, product is reported to be scarce, although Yara is reported to be bringing in a Libyan vessel soon.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea continued to be quoted at $235-$250/st FOB regional terminals in early February, with the low reported in Cincinnati, Ohio, for prompt tons.
Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market remained flat at $245-$255/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.
Southern Plains: Granular urea was quoted at $245-$250/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., down some $5-$15/st from last report, with inventories continuing to be described as tight due to Arkansas River logistics. “Urea has begun to arrive by barge in the Tulsa market, but early barges are going to cover contracts, so spot product is still limited,” said one source.
South Central: The South Central terminal market continued to slip, but some sources speculated that price declines may be reaching their limit. “Buyers are still on the sidelines, but I’m getting the feeling that we may be at the bottom,” said one regional contact. “With good weather we will be busy during the second half of February, but distribution could be a big concern because of the lack of prepay this year.”
Granular urea pricing had reportedly fallen to $235-$255/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, down some $15-$20/st from mid-January levels, with the low at Convent, La., and the upper end out of spot Arkansas River locations. The urea market FOB Memphis was pegged at the $240/st FOB level in early February.
Southeast: Granular urea pricing had reportedly slipped to $275-$280/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, down another $5-$10/st from last report. One source said rail-DEL tons could also be had at the $275/st level on a spot basis in early February.
Sources continued to report a “very slow” fertilizer pace in the region, due both to wet weather and to cutbacks in wheat acreage. One Carolina contact said growers in his area would do some wheat topdressing “as soon as the weather changes,” but volumes would likely be only half of normal due to acreage reductions.
Another regional contact reported a slight uptick in fertilizer orders in early February, saying he’d “taken more orders in the last five days than in the last two months.” Low inventories continued to be reported throughout the region, however. “We’re theoretically three weeks away from the field here,” noted one source.
India: The government reported that imports were right on the mark for 2015. Industry watchers estimated India would need to import 8-9 million tons in 2015, and government figures released this week showed 2015 imports at 8.85 million tons.
Besides the public tenders conducted by MMTC, STC, and IPL, India imports urea from a joint venture operation in Oman. The output of that plant regularly supplies material to India. Just this week, a shipment of 43,000 mt from the Oman facility was unloaded at Vizag.
Sources said India is in no rush to start its 2016 buying. With prices showing no sign of rebounding, sources said the Indian buying houses appear to be willing