Central Florida: Pricing on the Central Florida phosphate market held flat, sources reported. The bulk of the week’s truck-loaded DAP sales occurred around $370/st FOB, buyers and sellers agreed, with a smaller number of transactions reported as low as $360/st FOB.
The DAP market was quoted in a range of $360-$370/st FOB, unchanged from the previous report. MAP was also unmoved at $370-$380/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf: Sources reported strengthening in the NOLA barge market. Prompt DAP edged higher through the first-quarter midpoint, settling into a range of $322-$335/st FOB.
Most of the week’s trading was described in the $322-$327/st FOB range, and was primarily comprised of import transactions. Domestic producer-direct sales were responsible for the upper end of the range.
Additionally, truck sales totaling approximately 1,500 st were reported from NOLA at a price of $335/st FOB.
MAP trading was called “essentially even with DAP” at the low end, and extended to $340/st FOB at the high.
DAP paper trading for March moved up as well, with bids quoted at $325/st FOB on Feb. 17 versus $330/st FOB offers. March paper was called $320-$329/st FOB in the previous report.
Several observes cited a full import slate as holding the market flat. With a MAP cargo expected at NOLA in February, a EuroChem or PhosAgro DAP and MAP vessel in March, and 1-3 OCP cargoes staggered over the next 45 days, projected imports weighed on the market.
But rather than a potential supply burden threatened by the vessels, many blamed the cargoes’ expected pricing structures instead. “Being that they are likely formula priced, I think it puts a cap on NOLA,” a trader said of the imports. “It limits any squeeze to the upside if (the price) runs early.”
“The import lineup is keeping the market from an in-season uptick,” another trader added.
Expected loading delays at Morocco could provide a short-term price bump, one contact argued, but sources generally reported a bearish mid-term outlook.
“Forward pessimism is widely present past spring, also limiting upside,” a contact added.
Sources quoted the prompt DAP market in a range of $322-$335/st FOB for the week, an increase from $315-$330/st FOB in the previous report. MAP was generally called $322-$340/st FOB, higher than $315-$335/st FOB at last check.
Eastern Cornbelt: The regional DAP market was pegged at $360-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $5/st from last report, with the Cincinnati market quoted in the $360-$365/st FOB range. DAP pricing FOB Ottawa, Ill., was also reported at $365/st at midweek.
MAP was pegged at $365-$375/st FOB in the region, with the low again reported at Cincinnati.
10-34-0 was commonly quoted at the $510/st FOB level in the Eastern Cornbelt at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt: The DAP market remained at $360-$370/st FOB most terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP $5/st higher than DAP.
10-34-0 was pegged at $475-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa.
Northern Plains: DAP pricing was quoted at $363-$365/st FOB the Twin Cities, with the MAP market pegged at $365-$370/st FOB at that location. Although warehouse postings for MAP remained as high as $435/st FOB at some locations in North Dakota, sources there quoted rail-DEL MAP at $405-$413/st in the state.
The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $485-$490/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered prompt tons quoted in the $500-$505/st range in central North Dakota.
Great Lakes: Sources quoted the DAP market in a broad range at $375-$405/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low in Wisconsin and the upper end in the Michigan market. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP, with the dealer market out of Michigan terminals pegged at the $415/st FOB level at mid-month.
The 10-34-0 market was quoted at the $510/st FOB level at all shipping points in the region.
Agrium’s Feb. 1 phos acid postings for rail-DEL SPA and MGA remained at January/December pricing levels of $1,090/st of P2O5 in Michigan, and $1,050/st rail-DEL in Wisconsin.
Northeast: MAP pricing in the Northeast remained at $380-$390/st FOB, with the low at Fairless, Penn., and the upper end FOB East Liverpool. DAP was pegged at $380-$385/st FOB in the region.
10-34-0 was quoted at $510-$515/st FOB in the region, with the upper end out of terminals in upstate New York.
U.S. Export: Mosaic announced a 25,000 mt sale of DAP and MAP into Latin America last week. The cargo was set for February shipment and priced at $360/mt FOB.
The transaction was Mosaic’s first publicly announced export sale since a 10,000 mt Central America-bound DAP load traded in December 2015.
The Gulf export market was called $360/mt FOB based on recent trading, down from week-ago price ideas in the $380-$385/mt FOB range.
Wet-process phosphoric acid exports increased in January, according to data released by The Fertilizer institute (TFI). Shipments totaled 40,460 st for the month, a 213.1 percent hike from the year-ago 12,924 st. The numbers were down against December 2015, however, when producers moved 48,164 st of product.
Shipments to India were put at 28,638 st, a 321.0 percent rise from 6,802 st in January 2015. Brazil added to the month’s black ink with 7,010 st after buying no U.S. acid in January 2015. Cargoes to Mexico were down 20.1 percent at 4,318 st, and Canada’s 494 st represented a 31.4 percent drop from the year-ago.
For the fertilizer year-to-date, total U.S. exports stood at 228,205 st, a 2.1 percent increase from 223,479 st a year earlier.
The first-quarter price of phosphoric acid sold to India was $715/mt CFR, a decline of $95/mt from the second-half 2015 price of $810/mt CFR.
Brazil: Traders called the Brazil MAP market tighter for the week at $325-$330/mt CFR. The market was quoted at $325-$340/mt CFR in the previous report.
Earlier reports of the MAP purchases at $340/mt CFR led sources to speculate the source of the product had to be Russia. The netback for the Brazil deal would put the product at $310-$320/mt FOB into Russia.
The price puts sales to Brazil out of reach for China. Traders said China has pricing ideas in the $350s/mt FOB for its MAP.
Sources reported attempts by other buyers have not been as successful as the Brazilians. Traders noted Brazil may not be able to continue to buy at this level again either. Cutbacks in U.S. and Chinese production will put a strain on supply, forcing prices up.
Saudi Arabia: Sources believed last-done on the Saudi Arabian DAP market consisted of sales to India and Bangladesh netting back $375-$385/mt FOB to the Kingdom.
China: Prices remain flat in China. Sources reported some domestic demand is helping move out DAP and MAP from producers’ warehouses.
One trader noted even without the slight movement in the domestic market, Chinese producers have been unwilling to chase a softening phosphate market. The main reason, said one source, is the cost of producing the product. Sources estimate the current level is pretty close to the break-even point for the producers.
The week-long Lunar New Year break gave producers a bit of a breather because they did not operate during that time. Now, with domestic demand beginning, the producers might be able to ease up prices.
MAP was being pegged at $350-$360/mt FOB, with DAP coming in about $15/mt higher.