U.S. Gulf: Most sources continued to put the NOLA barge market in the $195-$200/st FOB range last week, with others calling trades as high as $205/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market was tagged at $245-$260/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low FOB Ottawa and the upper end out of inland warehouses. The Cincinnati potash market was quoted at $250-$255/st FOB at mid-month, while pricing out of the Burns Harbor market was reported at the $250/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt: The potash market was generally quoted in the $245-$260/st FOB range out of regional warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, with the bulk of spot quotes reported in the $250-$260/st FOB range at mid-month.
Northern Plains: Potash pricing out of regional warehouses in the Northern Plains was reported at $255-$260/st FOB. Rail-DEL tons remained at $250-$260/st in North Dakota, with the market FOB Saskatchewan mines quoted at $210-$220/st FOB after netbacks, depending on grade. Sources continued to report few new potash sales in the region, however.
Great Lakes: The potash market was quoted at $260-$267/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low for red and the upper end for white granular tons.
Michigan sources quoted the sulfate of potash (SOP) market unchanged at $690/st FOB Toledo, Ohio.
SOP Magnesia remained at $470/st FOB out of Michigan terminals.
Northeast: Potash was reported at $260-$267/st FOB in the Northeast, with the low at East Liverpool and the upper end FOB Baltimore. Delivered potash was pegged at a nominal $270-$280/st in the Northeast, depending on grade and location.
India: India’s government has taken a decision to halt imports of potash for the remainder of the fertilizer year, which ends March 31, amid a decline in domestic consumption of the nutrient and high potash inventories. Furthermore, the country’s potash buyers will delay negotiations with suppliers for 2015/16 purchases and talks may now only start in June, according to the managing director of India’s biggest potash importer, Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL).
Successive droughts have slowed plantings of crops and cut the need for fertilizer. According to IPL’s managing director, P.S. Gahlaut, India has 1 million mt of potash inventory, despite cutting back on imports. Government and industry officials say the country’s potash imports next fertilizer year are unlikely to regain the levels of over 4 million mt seen in the past few years. India imported 4.197 million mt of potash in 2014/15.
India imports of potash for direct application during the first 10 months of the current fertilizer year through to end-January stood at 2.942 million mt, according to India’s Department of Fertilizers, marking a fall of some 22 percent on the 3.797 million mt imported in the same period in 2014/15 (GM Feb. 12, p. 10).
In May, buyers agreed to annual import contracts with international suppliers for an estimated 4.5 million mt of firm quantities for shipment in 2015/16, with around a further estimated 600,000 mt of optional mt. While there continues to be little in the way of official confirmation, buyers secured a discount on the 2015/16 contract price of $332/mt CFR with 180 days on all cargoes loading since Oct. 1 (GM Jan.1, p. 8). The discount is believed to be on the order of $15/mt.
Nepal: Wilson Trading Co. is heard to have submitted the lowest offer in state-run Agriculture Inputs Co. Ltd.’s (AICL) tender for 5,000 mt of potash, which closed Feb. 15. Price details were not forthcoming. Offers are to remain valid for a minimum of 21 days after the tender closes, and delivery is to be made to AICL warehouses.
China: The country has returned to work following the Lunar New Year holidays. However, with comfortable inventories, buyers here are in no hurry to agree to new potash deals for 2016 supplies.
Yehonathan Shohat, chemical industry analyst at Leader Capital Markets Ltd., a leading Tel Aviv-based investment firm, expects the China contract to settle this year at $250-$260/mt CFR, versus 2015’s $315/mt.
Northwest Europe: New season demand continues to be tempered by wet weather across much of the region. Buyer sources claim €300/mt CIF, the top end of the current price range for granular potash, is no longer realistic in the current market conditions.