Central Florida: DAP trucks sold on the Central Florida phosphate market were quoted at $315/st FOB, unchanged from the week before. MAP was listed $15/st higher that DAP, at $330/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf: The NOLA DAP market continued to firm last week, riding a spike in mid-season demand to climb above $300/st for the first time since early November.
Sources put DAP trades in the $300-$305/st FOB range, while MAP traded $7-$10/st FOB higher at $307-$315/st FOB. Low inventories at the retail level were seen as feeding barge-market demand, while expectations of milder post-Christmas weather led some to predict an upswing in dry fertilizer applications in the week ahead.
DAP for January and February loading tracked the prompt price higher to $300-$305/st FOB, with most business reported at the upper end of the range.
Several imports were expected in the short term, including a cargo from Chinese producer YUC in late December or early January. A roughly 50,000 mt PhosAgro cargo brought in by ADM is slated for January, and rumors persisted regarding a third cargo of either Russian or Moroccan product, also due in January.
NOLA DAP barges firmed to $300-$305/st FOB, up from $292-$305/st FOB at last report. MAP rose as well, and was generally called in the $307-$315/st FOB range, up from $300-$310/st FOB the week before. TSP was unchanged at $268-$270/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was unchanged at $335-$345/st FOB most regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at $345-$355/st FOB in the region.
10-34-0 remained at $365-$380/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $335-$340/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged in the $345-$350/st FOB range in the region.
10-34-0 was reported at $350-$365/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa. The top end of the range reflected a $15/st drop from last report.
California: California sources continued to quote the MAP market at $430-$435/st FOB or DEL in the state, with TSP (0-45-0) tagged at $380/st FOB French Camp. The 16-20-0 market was steady at $345-$357/st FOB in California.
The phosphoric acid market was unchanged as well at $8.60-$8.65/unit rail-DEL in California, with Simplot referencing MGA at the $8.80/unit level FOB Lathrop and El Centro.
10-34-0 remained at $413-$418/st FOB in the state, with 11-37-0 quoted in the $448-$453/st FOB range in California.
Pacific Northwest: MAP continued to be quoted at $420-$425/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest. The TSP (0-45-0) price remained at $365/st FOB Pocatello, Idaho, while 16-20-0 was unchanged as well at $335-$340/st DEL in the region.
The phos acid market remained at $8.10/unit FOB Pocatello and $8.55-$8.60/unit rail-DEL for MGA and SPA in the region.
10-34-0 pricing in the Pacific Northwest was unchanged at $380-$395/st FOB, while 11-37-0 remained in the $406-$421/st FOB range in the region.
Western Canada: MAP was quoted at $570-$590/mt DEL in Western Canada, with reports of limited spring prepay being offered at the $615/mt DEL level on a spot basis. Some sources speculated that spring pricing for MAP could climb to the $625-$630/mt DEL level, but another contact quickly added that spring pricing levels at this point are “anybody’s guess.”
The 10-34-0 market remained at $590/mt FOB and $595-$610/mt DEL for the last spot business in Western Canada, depending on location.
U.S. Export: No new spot sales were reported in the Gulf export market last week. Sources continued to note tight supply for December, while quoting offers at $320/mt FOB for nearest availability.
With no new price points reported, the Gulf export market remained at $320/mt FOB, unmoved from the week before.
Phosphate exports grew in October, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). U.S. suppliers shipped 115,788 st of DAP and MAP to offshore buyers for the month, a 9.8 percent year-over-year increase from the 105,444 st logged last October. However, current-month numbers were down from 209,549 st exported in September.
Brazil led all October buyers with 46,509 st received, a 78.1 percent increase from last year’s 26,108 st. Sales into Canada totaled 22,970 st, a 102.8 percent improvement from the year-ago 11,328 st. Colombia was the month’s third-largest buyer at 14,070 st, 7.5 percent higher than the October 2015 tally of 13,091 st.
For the calendar year-to-date through October, Brazil’s 586,897 st more than doubled second-place India’s 258,017 st. Brazil registered 26.6 percent growth from the year-ago 463,435 st, while India lagged its 10-month 2015 total of 324,100 st by 20.4 percent. Canada’s 216,194 st represented 9.8 percent growth over the 196,976 st recorded last year.
Total U.S. exports through October totaled 1,704,408 st, 5.6 percent below the previous year’s 1,805,294 st. The data blamed weaker 2016 demand from India and a number of Central American markets for the decline, as well as a near-collapse in sales to TFI’s 27-nation small-market basket. Calendar-year shipments to those countries combined for just 8,068 st through October, 93.6 percent below last year’s 125,481 st for the same period.
Phosphoric acid sold to India was contracted at $715/mt CFR for first-quarter 2016. Recent spot sales have been rumored at sub-$600/mt CFR levels.
Brazil: The sale of Vale SA’s fertilizer unit to Mosaic will likely position Mosaic as the Brazilian market’s leading phosphate distributor, sources said. The addition of Vale’s current 4.8 million mt/y production capacity to Mosaic’s ledger could mean a shift for the world’s largest fertilizer producer, with more of the company’s phosphate selling into Latin America rather than the North American market for the first time.
Last-done MAP sold into Brazil was called $325-$330/mt CFR, unchanged from the prior week.
Saudi Arabia: Observers put last-done netbacks to Saudi producers in the $300-$310/mt FOB range. However, firmer offers heard from a number of international markets may signal an upward move in the next round of business, sources said.
China: Reduced production and increased domestic demand are playing to the favor of producers. While offers of $330-$335/mt FOB for DAP are commonly heard, sources said nothing has been concluded at that level yet.
Traders said a more realistic DAP price is centered on $315/mt FOB. Industry watchers said people who are using the sale to Pakistan several weeks ago as a guide are now disappointed with their inability to buy under $310/mt FOB.
Australia continues to buy MAP, making Chinese producers happy.
India: By all rights, sources said the price in India for imported DAP should be about $325/mt CFR, based on the Pakistan business from last week. Buyers seem to be more interested in $320/mt CFR, however, while producers are promoting much higher prices. Some buyers point to a sale by Ma’aden into India at $320/mt CFR. Just about everyone else points out that this deal was in early December, however, and prices have since moved up.
The rise in prices in China almost guarantees that Indian buyers will pay more when they finally cut a deal. Among buyers currently hitting the price wall are Deepak and IPL. Deepak has reportedly pulled back from its earlier searches this week after sellers refused to budge from their initial offering price.
Independent surveys of DAP prices across the country show varying prices among producers, but a clear upward trend across the board.