Central Florida: DAP trucks sold on the Central Florida phosphate market softened to $335/st FOB, a $15/st drop from the last reported $350/st FOB level. Taking a cue from DAP, MAP fell to $355/st FOB from the prior week’s $370/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf: Unexpectedly thin supply supported prompt NOLA DAP pricing last week, with market players confirming loaded sales in the $305-$315/st FOB range. Domestic producer transactions accounted for the top of the range, while imports tracked lower. Barge sales rumored in the $302-$304/st FOB range remained unconfirmed on April 13.
Market watchers pointed to an uptick in demand in the Midwest and Arkansas River regions. Busy warehouses inspired a “mad scramble” for DAP barges from Lower Mississippi River, Kentucky, and Tennessee customers, one source said. Much of the demand was focused on barges positioned upriver, although loaded NOLA barges also drew interest.
Ill-timed supply woes supported pricing as well. With the next wave of import barges described as having a week or more remaining until loading, those staring into quickly emptying bins were compelled to pay the prompt premium, sources said.
Full-April tons saw reduced demand, and market players generally called the April DAP spread closer to $305-$310/st FOB. May DAP slipped to $300-$305/st FOB with little interest. April MAP was called $315-$320/st FOB, while May MAP was quoted at $310-$315/st FOB with “no interest.”
New information obtained late in the prior trading week recast the April 7 DAP range. A domestic DAP barge was confirmed to change hands at $322/st FOB on March 31, stretching prompt DAP to $304-$322/st FOB in the April 7 issue
For the current week, sources quoted nearby DAP at $305-$315/st FOB. With no confirmed transactions, MAP was left unchanged at $316-$325/st FOB. Price ideas for TSP were flat at $280-$290/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP pricing remained at $350-$365/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed for prompt tons out of spot river locations and the upper end out of inland warehouses. MAP was steady at $378-$395/st FOB in the region.
10-34-0 was quoted at $365-$380/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt: Sources reported steady movement of phosphates in the Western Cornbelt at mid-month. The low end of the DAP market was reported at $243-$245/st FOB St. Louis, with the upper end of the regional market pegged at $355-$360/st FOB out of inland warehouses. The Twin Cities DAP market was quoted at $347-$350/st FOB for the week.
MAP was $370-$390/st FOB in the region, with the lower end of the range reported at St. Louis.
10-34-0 remained at $355-$385/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.
California: MAP was generally quoted at $465-$470/st FOB or DEL in California from Western U.S. producers, although there were reports of railed tons available in the Central Valley for as low as $455/st in early April.
The 16-20-0 market remained at $362-$375/st FOB or rail-DEL in the state, while TSP (0-45-0) was quoted at $415/st FOB French Camp.
Agrium’s April 1 reference prices for phosphoric acid firmed to $880/st of P2O5 for delivered SPA and MGA in California and Arizona. Simplot also hiked its postings on April 1 to $8.80/unit for rail-DEL SPA and MGA in California, with MGA also referenced at the $9.00/unit level FOB Lathrop and El Centro.
10-34-0 was quoted at $420-$425/st FOB in California, up $3/st from last report, while 11-37-0 had reportedly firmed to $455-$460/st FOB in the state.
Pacific Northwest: MAP was quoted at $440-$455/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, reflecting a slight decrease from last report, with the low end quoted for railed tons. The market at Aurora, Ore., remained at $452/st FOB. “The late start has given everyone way too much time to target and to shop,” said one regional contact, who said retailers are shopping around and suppliers are targeting specific customers with low-ball prices.
Some sources even talked of rail-DEL MAP from the Midwest being quoted at sub-$400/st levels in the Pacific Northwest, but actual new business at that level was not confirmed. “You hear these things from time to time, and there may probably be some of those numbers floating around, but if the tons are coming from the Midwest or the Gulf, it’s going to take three weeks at a minimum for the cars to arrive,” said one regional contact. “So maybe in three or four weeks some of these numbers may become real.”
The TSP (0-45-0) market was unchanged at $400/st FOB Pocatello, Idaho, with pricing out of Aurora quoted at the $457/st level
16-20-0 remained at $352-$360/mt DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with the Aurora market quoted at the $351/st FOB level.
Sources reported stronger pricing for phosphoric acid and ammonium polyphosphate in the Pacific Northwest. Simplot’s reference price for SPA and MGA firmed $0.10/unit on April 1, moving to $8.30/unit FOB Pocatello, Idaho, and $8.80/unit rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest. Agrium’s reference price for phos acid also firmed on April 1 to $880/st of P2O5 for delivered SPA and MGA in Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Oregon.
As a result of the acid increase, the 10-34-0 market firmed to $380-$402/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location. 11-37-0 was reported at $413-$428/st FOB at mid-month, up $3/st from last report.
Western Canada: MAP had reportedly inched up $10/mt, to $635-$645/mt DEL in the region, with one Saskatchewan sources quoting the warehouse market at $625/mt FOB.
The 10-34-0 market remained at $575-$595/mt DEL in Western Canada, depending on location.
U.S. Exports: No new business was reported in the Gulf export market. Last-done consisted of a small DAP lot sold into Latin America and priced at $370/mt FOB. The load was set to ship in April.
Gulf exports held flat at $370/mt FOB based on the absence of fresh transactions.
Offshore phosphate shipments fell in February, according to The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) data. Combined DAP and MAP exports slipped to 116,670 st for the month, a 25.7 percent decline from 156,929 st sold in February 2016.
Brazil was the market’s No. 1 destination at 40,893 st, down 23.0 percent from the year-ago 53,109 st. Mexico’s 24,432 st fell 18.9 percent from last year’s 30,139 st, and Canada’s 13,413 st represented a 17.3 percent increase from last year’s 11,439 st, narrowly topping the 13,329 st sold to Colombia.
While the reduced numbers to Brazil contributed to the down month, softer demand from Australia and Japan played a larger role. Australia purchased zero tons after buying 26,589 st in February 2016, and Japan’s 7,864 st import total fell 65.3 percent below last year’s 22,667 st.
The market continued its slow start to calendar-year 2017, falling 16.9 percent below the 270,123 st start to 2016. Brazil led the pack with 70,100 st, a 16.1 percent fall from last year’s 83,569 st, and Australia’s 44,263 st represented an 18.0 percent drop from last year’s 53,980 st. Mexico’s 32,409 st was 7.9 percent lower than the 35,197 st received through February 2016.
The market remained ahead in the fertilizer year-to-date, however, running 2.0 percent ahead of last year at 1,215,866 st. Brazil was the largest destination for U.S. product with 367,894 st, topping Canada’s 238,359 st (0.6 percent y/y increase) and the 151,107 st shipped to India (13.5 percent y/y decline).
The second-quarter price of phosphoric acid delivered to India was $590/mt CFR, up from $550/mt CFR in Q1.
India: Buyers keep saying they do not want to pay anything more than $360/mt CFR. These claims fly in the face of offers made in two tenders this month.
The NFL tender that closed last week was scrapped after the prices – never publicly released – were too high. The RCF tender for DAP lite and GMAP showed numbers that were not to the Indian’s liking. The offers of DAP lite (14-86-0) were only differentiated by a few cents at $366/mt CFR. One trader said the equivalent price to DAP (18-46-0) would be about $380/mt CFR. Sources said RCF may also scrap its tender.
The tally for the RCF tender follows:
| GMAP tender | ||
| Offering Company | US$/mt CFR | Sources |
| Amber | 349.75 | China |
| Aries | 351.49 | China-Vietnam |
| Fertrade | 354.84 | China |
| Wilson (China) $359.85/mt CFR | 359.85 | China |
| Yichang Dongsheng | 375.00 | China |
| DAP Lite (14-86-0) Tender | ||
| Offering Company | US$/mt CFR | Sources |
| Ameropa | 366.33 | China-Vietnam |
| Aries | 366.49 | China-Vietnam |
| Wilson | 366.85 | China |
Buyers are reportedly beginning to make the rounds of producers, looking for a deal on large tonnage. Sources report, however, that the Chinese producers are not budging. The DAP-equivalent price into China, based on the RCF numbers, is in the low-$360s/mt FOB. Even the lowest prices last heard out of China would have deliveries into India in the mid-$370s/mt CFR.
China: The group of DAP producers who said they will stick together to keep prices up seems to be having its way.
The netback on the offers made into the RCF tender show a netback of $332/mt FOB for the GMAP and $348/mt FOB for the DAP lite. One trader said extrapolating the netback for DAP, the netback comes in the low-$360s/mt FOB.
Sources point to a couple of smaller DAP deals at $352/mt FOB from a river port and $355/mt FOB from a southern facility as indications that the Chinese are in no hurry to drop their prices.
Sources reported that even though potential Indian buyers are now indicating that they want to talk about large quantities for June and July deliveries, the Chinese producers are unmoved by their pleas for lower prices.
North Africa: Sources put recent phosphate rock sales out of North Africa at $85-$105/mt FOB, a decline from $85-$110/mt FOB at last report.