With major crop nutrient prices still at record lows, specialty value fertilizers, micronutrients, and growth in key markets such as Brazil were themes across multiple presentations at the 12th annual BMO Farm to Market conference, which took place this week in New York.
Major fertilizer producers also remained generally optimistic about a near- to medium-term turnaround in the market, but with differing views on major commodities.
CF Industries remains positive on the market, and continues to see current low pricing as unsustainable, particularly with regard to urea. The company is preparing for market impacts from new domestic capacity, but touted its ability to switch from urea to UAN and its access to potentially higher prices in the global markets. CF noted that China will always be important, even though its weight on the global export market has been reduced.
Both Agrium and PotashCorp reported that their merger remains on track. Retail distribution, low cost production and synergies, and a strong balance sheet were among the highlighted bullet points.
Agrium was particularly bullish on its nitrogen position, highlighting the company’s facility locations and its exposure to the Pacific Northwest price premium. Agrium said it sees the nitrogen market bottoming in 2017. The company also highlighted its lowered position on the potash cost curve, with its ramped-up production at Vanscoy and reduced CAPEX. Agrium said it is still expanding its retail network and seeking to add locations and increase market share.
PotashCorp noted global inventory drawdowns against a backdrop of new capacity ramp-ups and strong demand for potash markets this year. The company said it anticipates reasonably balanced potash markets in the medium term and the potential for deficit after 2021. In the nitrogen market, PotashCorp highlighted the difficulties the current market faces but remains more bullish for 2018 and beyond.
Eurochem highlighted the current ramp-up schedule of their highly anticipated potash mines, with the first tons expected in late 2017 and production ramping up to 2025. The company said it remains mindful of market impacts as it ramps up capacity. Eurochem also highlighted its specialty product portfolio and anticipated ammonia self-sufficiency in the near-term. Eurochem reiterated its current focus on its potash expansion and said it will evaluate other potential projects down the line.
Compass Minerals noted strong uptake of micronutrient products through their PDQ division, as well as continued demand for its specialty products and SOP in North America. Other presenters with developing specialty fertilizers included Sirius Minerals and Anuvia.
Israel Chemicals (ICL) highlighted its high quality asset base and movement toward specialty with new time release and polysulfate products. The company noted the potential to migrate its China phosphate joint venture to specialty products as well. ICL said it remains committed to cost improvement of assets, with Spanish potash capacity remaining a large focus as well as its migration away from MOP in the U.K. The company said it is also interested in bolt-on acquisitions for specialty fertilizer players in the $100-$150 million range.
K+S reiterated that its new Legacy mine in Saskatchewan is now open, with the first product expected by the end of June and production targets remaining at 0.5-0.7 million mt for 2017. With the Legacy investment now over, the company is aiming to release “Shaping 2030” this fall to promote future strategy. K+S downplayed any risk to North American storage capacity, citing the strength of its distribution channel partner, Koch Fertilizer LLC. The company said it would also be willing, post full ramp up of its Canadian capacity, to curtail on the supply side in Germany.
Other trends discussed at the conference, particularly at the farm level, included concerns about immigration and trade patterns with any changes in NAFTA. Labor concerns were particularly worrisome for several of the presenters with regard to specialty crops.