USDA on Aug. 10 released its updated Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports, projecting increases for soybeans and cotton, but another decline for corn.
U.S. corn production was forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 7 percent from 2016 and 102 million bushels lower than the July estimate, while average corn yields were projected at 169.5 bushels/acre, down 5.1 bushels from last year and 1.2 bushels lower than the July estimate. Despite the reductions, USDA said this will be the third-highest yield and production on record for the U.S., if realized. Harvested corn area was estimated at 83.5 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast, but down 4 percent from 2016. The projected range for the season-average corn price remained at $2.90-$3.70/bushel.
Fertilizer industry sources were lamenting the depressed corn prices and the likely impact on crop input decisions. “Prices at a negative basis are going to keep finances really tight,” said one contact. “Looks like we are trading about $0.30/bushel off the December corn highs of last month, and $0.75 off on November soybeans for this year’s crops,” added another source. “That relates to $40-$55 per acre, which goes a long way toward paying bills.”
USDA estimated U.S. soybean production at 4.38 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2016 and up 121 million bushels from last month, with average yields projected at 49.4 bushels/acre, down 2.7 bushels from last year’s record yields, but up 1.4 bushels from last month. Harvested area is forecast at a record high 88.7 million acres, unchanged from July, but up 7 percent from 2016. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2017/18 is forecast at $8.45-$10.15/bushel, with the midpoint down 10 cents/bushel from last month.
All cotton production is forecast at 20.5 million 480-pound bales, up 20 percent from last year and some 1.5 million bales above last month’s projection. If realized, this year’s cotton production will be the largest in 11 years. Cotton yields are expected to average 892 pounds/harvested acre, up 25 pounds from last year. The range for the marketing year average cotton price received by producers is forecast at 55-67 cents/pound, with the midpoint unchanged from last month.
All wheat production was forecast at 1.74 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the July forecast, and down 25 percent from 2016. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the average U.S. wheat yield was projected at 45.6 bushels/acre, down 0.6 bushel from last month and down 7 bushels from last year. The 2017/18 season-average farm price for wheat was $4.40-$5.20/bushel, with the midpoint unchanged from last month at $4.80/bushel.
The 2017/18 U.S. rice production forecast was lowered to 186.5 million cwt, down 4.8 million cwt from last month and representing the smallest all-rice crop in the U.S. since 2011/12. The 2017/18 average rice yield was forecast at 7,513 pounds/acre, down 194 pounds from the previous projection. The 2017/18 all-rice season-average farm price range was $12.20-$13.20/cwt, with the midpoint up $0.40/cwt from last month.