U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Nothing new was reported in the Tampa market during the week, but sources reported a fresh barge trade at $322/st FOB, up from the prior $311/st. As for Tampa in the near term, while some sources argued that Tampa pricing may have about topped out in the near term, but others noted expectations of increased short-term curtailments in Trinidad and rising prices in the Cornbelt.
U.S. Imports:
August ammonia imports totalled 264,260 st, down 32 percent from the year-ago 386,588 st, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. July-August imports were off 29 percent, to 506,422 st from 716,761 st.
U.S. Exports:
August ammonia exports were down 9 percent, to 50,096 st from the year-ago 55,000 st. July-August exports ticked up 2 percent, to 140,537 st from 138,093 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Anhydrous ammonia pricing remained at a firm $450/st FOB or higher out of Illinois terminals, with the upper end of the regional range quoted at $465-$470/st FOB in Indiana. One source said he expects wet weather delays in Illinois to cut into the fall application window for ammonia.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was quoted at $435-$455/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa and Minnesota for fall tons.
Southern Plains:
The ammonia market was pegged at a firm $380-$395/st FOB Oklahoma production points, with the low at Pryor and the upper end at Verdigris. The Enid market was pegged at the $390/st FOB level in early October. Truck pricing out of Beaumont, Texas, was reported at the $335/st FOB level for new sales.
South Central:
Sources continued to report no current anhydrous ammonia offers out of Memphis, Tenn. The last business was pegged at $337-$355/st FOB regional terminals for truck tons, with the low out of Louisiana production.
Black Sea:
The continued lack of extra material makes nailing down spot ammonia prices difficult, but sources said pricing expectations have edged up. Deals in the area are being pegged at $340-$350/mt FOB, with more of an emphasis on the lower end of the range.
Middle East:
Sources said rumors were circulating that Trammo picked up a cargo from Saudi Arabia at $363/mt FOB. Industry watchers said the price seemed too high to be workable for any buyer.
On the other hand, said one observer, supplies from the Arab producers have been tight, with no sign of excess anywhere. The tightness in the Middle East got more severe, said one trader, as more buyers were forced to drop Iran as a supplier, with demand for ammonia from other sources putting upward pressure on prices.
Traders put the current market at $340-$350/mt FOB, with the possibility that some deals may be a bit higher.
JPMC in Jordan is expected to come in at the end of this month for a tender to book their 2019 needs. Sources estimated the tonnage that JPMC will ask for at 100,000 mt, with shipments to be spread out over the year.
India:
Ammonia sellers were happy to hear reports that Indian DAP buyers went quiet this week. The calm came after a flurry of DAP purchases from China. Traders now figure that India will make up the rest of its DAP needs with its own production.
Sources said even though the market is tight, there is still enough material to satisfy Indian demand. The ammonia, however, will have to come from sources other than Iran, as the impact of the U.S. sanctions against that country drives away buyers.
Sources put the market at $380-$410/mt CFR.