Central Florida:
DAP trucks softened to $295/st FOB, down from $305-$310/st FOB at last report. MAP continued to hold a $5/st premium to DAP at $300/st FOB, a decline from $310-$315/st FOB in the previous report.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources noted falling prices amid an uptick in trading volumes on the NOLA phosphate barge market.
Low-end DAP held steady at the previous week’s $242/st FOB level, while a lack of confirmed domestic DAP sales allowed the market’s ceiling to slip to $245/st FOB. Most market watchers described new offers in the $245-$250/st FOB range on Nov. 14.
MAP barges saw the most dramatic decline, falling to $246/st FOB in confirmed trading. At the top of the range, market watchers noted domestically produced tons trading in limited quantities at $250/st FOB, below the week-ago $260/st FOB high.
The nearby DAP barge market was noted in a general $242-$245/st FOB range, declining from $242-$259/st FOB in the previous report. MAP barge sales were reported at $246-$250/st FOB, below the prior week’s $257-$260/st FOB level.
U.S. Imports:
September DAP imports were noted at 66,807 st, a 45 percent fall from 121,650 st in the previous September. DAP totals were also down for the July-September period at 262,546 st, 10 percent below the previous-year 293,196 st.
September MAP/Other imports fell by one percent, to 156,069 st from the year-ago 158,069 st. July-September imports rose by 46 percent, to 465,648 st from 317,906 st.
U.S. Exports:
DAP exports for September were noted at 152,047 st, rising 66 percent from the previous year’s 91,555 st level. July-September DAP exports rose 7 percent, to 314,434 st from the year-ago 294,764 st.
MAP/Other exports firmed to 245,008 st for the month of September, rising 38 percent from the year-ago 177,955 st. MAP/Other exports for July-September totaled 760,425 st, a 42 percent year-over-year increase from 534,706 st.
Gulf export phosphate offers were reported softening to $290/mt FOB for the week, declining from $300-$305/mt FOB at last report. No new business was reported to conclude for the week.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing had reportedly slipped to $290-$300/st FOB Illinois and Ohio River terminals, down another $5-$10/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Ottawa, Ill. Sources pegged the upper end of the regional market at the $310/st level FOB inland warehouses.
MAP was generally $2-$5/st higher than DAP, with the low confirmed at $292/st FOB Ottawa at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP and MAP pricing continued to fall in the Western Cornbelt. Sources pegged the St. Louis DAP market at $290-$300/st FOB, with the upper end of the regional range reported at $305-$310/st FOB out of Iowa warehouses on a spot basis. MAP was quoted at $300-$305/st FOB St. Louis and $310-$315/st FOB in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
DAP prompt business out of St. Paul had reportedly fallen to $300-$310/st FOB, with MAP pegged in the $305-$315/st FOB range. Sources continued to report delivered green MAP from Western U.S. producers at the $405/st level into western North Dakota, but with no actual business to test that level.
Great Lakes:
The DAP market in the Great Lakes region was pegged at $320-$330/st FOB, down another $10/st from the previous week, and a full $25/st lower than month-ago levels.
MAP was quoted at $320-$345/st FOB in mid-November, with the low reported in Wisconsin and the Michigan warehouse market confirmed at $330/st FOB Webberville and $345/st FOB Essexville.
Northeast:
DAP pricing out of Northeast warehouses was quoted at $325/st FOB at mid-month, down another $5/st from last report, with MAP reported at the $330/st FOB level, also reflecting a $5/st drop. “Prices are holding up better in the Northeast versus other markets,” said one regional contact.
India:
Sources reported a sale of 20,000 mt of Russian DAP to Chambal at $320/mt CFR. This price gives the Russian material a netback to the Baltics of $270/mt FOB.
International traders looked at the deal as another indicator of weakness in the DAP market. Sources said talks are already underway for another cargo, with a real possibility of achieving $310/mt CFR by next week.
Sources said Indian buyers have been taking advantage of the soft DAP market with all known suppliers. The Chinese producers are the only ones who have not yet matched the ever-lower prices that the Indians want.
China:
The equivalent price to China of the Russian DAP is below $300/mt FOB. Sources said while this might be an interesting math issue, the price from China has not yet dipped below $320/mt FOB.
One trader said the main reason the Chinese price has not dropped quickly to $300/mt FOB is that the domestic market is still providing a path for a slower decline in prices. Despite the support given by the domestic market, sources said eventually the Chinese producers will have to lower their prices to match the levels currently being paid by India.
The phosphate and NPK producers are meeting late this week, and sources said the top point of discussion is trying to find a way to reverse the softening price. Unfortunately for the producers, industry watchers from around the world said demand is not strong enough to combat the oversupply of phosphates being produced.
Brazil:
Brazil import MAP pricing was reported at $290-$295/mt CFR, falling from $290-$300/mt CFR the previous week.
Some sources said the MAP price floor may have been hit. Although there does not appear to be a strong rebound in pricing coming soon, traders see an optimistic future. Buying in the countryside has started to pick up as soybean farmers slowly build their reserves for the 2020 season. Some of the bigger cooperatives and farm groups have already stepped up with purchases of at least 110,000 mt.
Prices at inland distribution sites such as Rondonopolis are now in the range of $360-$380/mt CFR. These prices reflect the cost of taxes and transportation from the ports.
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia DAP pricing moved lower to $315-$320/mt FOB for the week. The market was previously noted at $320/mt FOB