U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia continued to be called $270/mt DEL for January, with sellers anxious to see a price increase for February.
Some suggested that a $30/mt uptick might be warranted. They cited continued strength in the phosphate market, tight supplies, and recent international outages, although the Tringen I plant was reported to have returned to production Jan. 8 in Trinidad. It had been down since Dec. 1 due to gas curtailments, with other major producers in the country also having some degree of gas curtailments.
In the U.S., Louisiana’s Waggaman plant was scheduled for a major turnaround this month.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report prompt ammonia at $380-$390/st FOB Eastern Cornbelt terminals, with spring prepay offers pegged at $415-$425/st FOB, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $370-$380/st FOB for limited prompt tons in Iowa and Nebraska, with spring prepay offers ranging from $400-$420/st FOB in the region, depending on location. Pricing in Oklahoma had reportedly firmed, however, to $310/st FOB Pryor for prompt tons, with the Verdigris market tagged at $320/st FOB for prompt and $350/st FOB for prepay.
Northern Plains:
Prepay ammonia offers ranged from $420/st in Minnesota to $445/st FOB Grand Forks, N.D., and $475/st FOB Velva, N.D., with delivered tons pegged at $485-$495/st in North Dakota. Prompt ammonia was pegged at $390-$400/st FOB in the Northern Plains.
Great Lakes:
Michigan sources pegged the ammonia market at $360-$430/st FOB Courtright, Ont., with the low for prompt tons and the high for spring prepay. Other terminal pricing included Huntington, Ind., at $380/st FOB for prompt and $430/st FOB for prepay, and Lima, Ohio, at $360/st FOB for prompt and $425/st FOB for prepay.
Black Sea:
The lack of export material has not stopped people from speculating what the Black Sea ammonia price would be if tons were available for sale.
Sources noted that most of the ammonia in the area is being used for domestic needs or to cover existing contracts. Even with the dearth of product for export, sources pointed to a rapid rise into the $230s/mt FOB in the past few weeks as evidence that higher prices should be posted for the area.
One trader said if any tons were available, they would be offered at or near $250/mt FOB. Others agreed that any new deals would most likely be in the $240s/mt FOB, with every possibility of hitting $250/mt FOB.
However, this past week showed no spot deals and no evidence that spot material will be available soon. In the absence of new business, any price in the $240s/mt FOB is speculation.
Middle East:
Tight ammonia supplies in the Middle East are forcing producers to reject any spot deal bids. As a result, no new pricing has been set in the area.
Northwest Europe:
The tight situation in Yuzhnyy and new deals out of Baltic ports are pushing up the ammonia price in Northwest Europe. Sources now peg the high end of the range at $320/mt C&F, with the low end closer to $300/mt C&F.
Upward pressure comes as plants in Europe are closing and as the Baltic price rises.
Sources said OCI bought a spot cargo at $275/mt FOB, which pushed up the Northwest Europe price. One trader said that price could end up being the higher end of the February price once talks get serious next week.
There is speculation that while $275/mt FOB could easily be the high end of the range, the low end may be closer to $250/mt FOB. A lot will depend on whether the new price makes it affordable to re-open some plants in Europe, and thereby ease pressure on importing material.
Southeast Asia:
Product remains tight in Southeast Asia. South Korea, one of the main buyers in the region, has had to go as far as Yuzhnyy and the Caribbean to find tons, only to be turned away with each inquiry.
South Korean imports for 2020 were down about 11 percent, to 1.2 million mt from 1.4 million mt in 2019. December 2020 imports were down almost 40 percent. Overall, each quarter of 2020 showed fewer imports than the corresponding quarter in 2019. For example, the last quarter of 2020 showed 292,000 mt imported against 313,000 mt during the same period in 2019. Similarly, the second half of 2020 showed 606,000 mt of imports against 696,000 mt in 2019.
Sources said the drop in imports could be the result of industrial slowdowns related to the COVID pandemic. However, one trader said buying interest seems to be stepping up in South Korea and Taiwan, putting more pressure on the demand side of the buying equation.
China:
Ammonia imports in China for 2020 were up about 100,000 mt from 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor, with 1.2 million mt imported in 2020 against about 1.1 million mt in 2019. The big jump came in the second half of the year, as July-December 2020 imports totaled 629,000 mt against 550,000 mt during the same months in 2019. First semester import numbers between 2019 and 2020 were about the same.
India:
Sources are waiting for another FACT ammonia tender to be called soon. The buyer usually calls a tender in the middle of a month to secure the tonnage it needs two months hence. The FACT tenders offer the industry a touchstone for where the Indian ammonia market is headed.