Central Florida:
DAP truck pricing pressed higher in Central Florida. Sources quoted the market in the $415-$430/st FOB range, an increase from $415/mt FOB in the previous report.
Truck-loaded MAP climbed to $460/st FOB on Jan. 21 after starting the trading week at $440-$450/st FOB, leaving the market in a wide $440-$460/st FOB range for the period.
U.S. Gulf:
Market players continued to report price increases for NOLA DAP and MAP barges, spurred in part by talk of an early spring planting season amid a backdrop of persistent supply tightness.
DAP barges were seen lifting to a nearby high of $430/st FOB, increasing from the week-ago $410/st FOB high. Imports were heard trading in the $410-$413/st FOB range to start the week, also lifting from the prior week’s $393/st FOB low. Tons slated for forward loading traded up to $444/st FOB, players noted.
Sources described the nearby MAP market topping out at $460/st FOB, lifting from the prior week’s $440/st FOB high, while some noted the nearby low holding steady from week-ago levels. March-loading barges were heard changing hands at $465/st FOB, with bids moving up to $470/st FOB by Jan. 21.
The nearby DAP market firmed to the $410-$430/st FOB range, from $393-$410/st FOB at last report. MAP barges were noted at $440-$460/st FOB, rising from $440/st FOB in the prior report.
U.S. Exports:
Mosaic reported a 5,000 mt DAP cargo sold to a single buyer in northern Latin America. The material was priced at $450/mt FOB and projected to release in early March.
Based on reported trades and available netbacks, sources quoted the week’s Gulf export market in the $430-$450/mt FOB range, firming from $405/mt FOB noted previously.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $445-$475/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. The lower end was confirmed out of Illinois and Ohio River terminals early in the week, with the high end of the range more commonly reported as the week progressed. Sources at midweek quoted the Ottawa market firmly at the $452/st FOB level for new offers.
MAP pricing had reportedly firmed to $500-$520/st FOB in the region, with higher levels expected in the near term.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources said warehouse phosphate prices were “jumping” during the week, but levels were difficult to peg as some suppliers withdrew offers to reassess the market. “It’s been crazy,” said one industry contact. Phosphate inventories continued to be described as very tight.
While DAP pricing continued to be quoted at $440-$450/st FOB as the week started, sources said they expected those levels to be up at least $30/st by the end of the week, if not higher. MAP was pegged at $500-$520/st FOB earlier in the week, but sources said some Iowa locations were referencing as high as $530-$540/st FOB by Jan. 21.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing FOB St. Paul was confirmed at $450-$455/st early in the week, but sources said most offers were pulled at midweek, with new offers expected to be up at least $30/st when they come out. MAP was pegged solidly at the $500-$520/st level FOB St. Paul at midweek, with higher numbers expected in the near term.
Great Lakes:
DAP pricing had reportedly firmed to $465-$485/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the upper end reported by Wisconsin sources for river-open offers at East Dubuque, Ill., from some wholesale suppliers. MAP was quoted at $508-$540/st FOB in the region, up another $10-$30/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Essexville and the high at East Dubuque.
Northeast:
DAP pricing was pegged at $465/st FOB East Liverpool, up $25/st from late December. MAP pricing had reportedly firmed to $500/st FOB East Liverpool and Fairless Hills for January-February tons, up $30/st from late December, with Fairless referenced at the $510/st FOB level for March-April.
Nutrien reported that its postings for both DAP and MAP at Aurora, N.C., firmed again to $465/st FOB during the week, up from the Jan. 14 posting of $450/st FOB and the previous list prices of $430/st FOB for DAP and $435/st FOB for MAP.
Brazil:
Sources reported MAP import pricing in the $445-$450/mt CFR range in Brazil for the week, firming from $425-$430/mt CFR noted previously.
Saudi Arabia:
Last-done sales of phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia were reported in the $390-$395/mt FOB range, increasing from $380-$385/mt FOB in the prior report.
China:
Traders reported a series of DAP deals that moved up prices. A cargo to Central America was pegged at $430/mt FOB, a sale to South Korea showed a netback of $440/mt FOB, and a sale as the week ended was reported nearing $450/mt FOB.
The upward movement was expected. Export tons have been rare out of China, as the domestic market first absorbed everything the producers could turn out, and then as producers cut back on output as the domestic demand eased. For weeks, international traders had been talking with producers and only getting high pricing ideas and no promise of tons.
Production is still limited because of power and input shortages. However, renewed COVID concerns are causing producers to limit output. New restrictions by the government are affecting the transportation of product out of the plant to terminals and ports. At the same time, even if the trucks can make the journey, workers at the loading facilities are being told to stay home as part of government-ordered lockdowns.
Exports in 2020 were down compared to 2019. Trade Data Monitor reported 2020 DAP exports at 7.7 million mt against 2019 exports of 6.5 million mt. Traders were surprised to see the drop, even though the 2019 number was also lower than the 7.5 million mt exported in 2018.
Exports during the second half of 2020 were about the same in 2019, but the COVID shutdowns in early 2020 resulted in first-half exports falling to 2 million mt from 2.7 million mt in the first half of 2019.
Exports of DAP during the first quarter were at 810,000 mt, the lowest number seen in a while. That period included not only the usual slowdown related to the Lunar New Year holiday, but the extended shutdowns as China worked to address COVID outbreaks in the major phosphate production area of the country.
India:
Buyers continue to argue that the DAP price in India should not be higher than $400/mt CFR. However, this sentiment is pushing up against Chinese prices now at $430-$450/mt FOB and Arab producers offering at $410/mt FOB.
For now, demand is not strong enough to force buyers to accept the higher prices. Sources said, however, that the Indian buyers will eventually have to move on prices or be left without their necessary phosphate fertilizers.
A tender by RCF closed on Jan. 5 for four lots of 20,000 mt each of either DAP lite or MAP. Only two offers were made in the DAP section, and only for March shipment. In both cases, sources said the offers were also conditional rather than firm. Sources added that the offered prices of $395/mt CFR and $410/mt CFR are now too low to be workable from any source.
The MAP offers were more in line with where traders see the market. Midgulf offered $413/mt CFR for February shipment, $408/mt CFR for May, and $407/mt CFR for June. The only other company offering tons was Wilson, which offered tons only for May at $419.25/mt CFR and June at $421.35/mt CFR.
Brazil:
Sources reported MAP import pricing in the $445-$450/mt CFR range in Brazil for the week, firming from $425-$430/mt CFR noted previously.
Sources from Singapore to Sao Paulo are talking about more tons being pushed into Brazil by OCP. Even as the talk of more tons dominates the discussion, the demand for product remains strong, leading to firmer prices.
The interest in MAP has extended inland, where buyers said tonnage is rare to find. Prices at Rondonopolis have moved up to $530-$561/mt CFR. Likewise, Sorriso is up to $540-$569/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP remained at 72 bags of corn, but dropped to 22 bags of soybeans, reflecting better prices for that product.
| Brazil MAP Prices | ||
| Terminal/City | US$/mt FOB | |
| Week ending 01/15 | Week Ending 01/22 | |
| Rondonopolis | 513-553 | 530-561 |
| Sorriso | 490-540 | 540-569 |