U.S. Gulf:
While early-week potash barge business was still being reported in the $260-$265/st FOB range, sources said midweek prices had easily topped the $270/st mark, with $272/st FOB concluded. Those levels were up from last week’s $250-$262/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was reported at $305-$330/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low out of spot river locations and the high reflecting inland warehouse postings from Canadian producers for Q2 tons. The bulk of river terminal prices in late January fell in the $310-$325/st FOB range.
Canadian producers reported a heavy order book for Q2 at the higher $325-$330/st FOB postings that took effect in December, with another increase possible before spring due to an empty supply chain.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market remained at $305-$325/st FOB regional warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Caruthersville and St. Louis.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was quoted at $305-$315/st FOB Houston and Catoosa/Inola, with delivered prompt tons in central Texas pegged at $330-$340/st. Reference pricing from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., remained at $380/st FOB for 60 percent white and $387/st FOB for 62 percent white standard.
South Central:
Potash prices were quoted at $305-$315/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, up $10/st from last report.
Southeast:
Potash imports out of port terminals in the Southeast were pegged at $305-$310/st FOB in late January, depending on location, with the Wilmington market quoted at a solid $308/st FOB. Rail-DEL offers ranged from $330-$350/st in the Southeast, depending on grade, location, and point of origin.
Brazil:
The MOP price range spread out in Brazil. Sources now call the market $255-$265/mt CFR in Paranagua, dropping the low end by $5/mt from last report. Sources expect to see the price fluctuate for a couple of months, but eventually move up to $270/mt CFR by the Brazilian winter in June.
While the portside price has shifted a bit, the price at Rondonopolis has shown much more movement, and is now pegged at $365-$372/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sorriso, on the other hand, settled with deals at $350/mt FOB ex-warehouse, right in the middle of the range quoted by traders.
The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP is still 20 bags of soybeans. The ratio for corn exchanges changed to 55 bags this week, up from 44 bags last week.
| Brazil MOP Prices | ||
| Terminal/City | US$/mt FOB | |
| Week ending 01/22 | Week Ending 01/29 | |
| Rondonopolis | 314-345 | 365-372 |
| Sorriso | 345-355 | 345-355 |
Russia:
January-November 2020 MOP exports from Russian totaled 8.6 million mt, up from the 7.9 million mt reported during the same period in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. Exports fell to 772,000 mt in November 2020, however, compared with 810,000 mt in November 2019.
Brazil was the main buyer of Russian MOP in the first 11 months of 2020, taking 2.4 million mt, down from the 2019 total of 2.6 million mt. China was second at 1.7 million mt, also down from the 2019 figure of 1.9 million mt.
India:
Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) said on Jan. 29 it has concluded negotiations with Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) and has signed a new annual contract to supply 800,000 mt of potash to the Indian market at a price of $247/mt CFR. The new price is a $17/mt increase on 2020’s contract price of $230/mt CFR with 180 days’ credit, which was agreed to in May and which was a $50/mt drop on the previous contract price reached in October 2019.
“Considering the importance of such a contract for both Indian and global markets of potash fertilizers, BPC and IPL managed to reach a settlement that would support the stability of global potash market with the potential for further strengthening of prices,” said BPC.
The Belarus company is the first supplier to agree a new supply contract with IPL, India’s biggest potash importer. Traditionally, other suppliers and Indian buyers agree to the same price as negotiated by the first supplier to reach a deal.
Canpotex was the first company last year to settle a new supply contract with India, agreeing new contracts with IPL in mid-May (GM May 15, 2020).
Ahead of the BPC announcement, Russia’s VTB Capital analysts, including Elena Sakhnova, wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg that they expected long-term contracts with India and China to be signed at $20/mt year-over-year higher by the end of the first quarter of 2021. They believe a potash recovery is “in full swing” after prices slumped to 10-year lows in April.