U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price for February stands at $330/mt DEL, up $60/mt from January’s $270/mt.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported prompt ammonia pricing now at the $430/st FOB level across the Eastern Cornbelt, up another $30/st from the previous week.
Spring prepay pricing was up as well, with sources quoting new offers at $470-$500/st FOB in the region, depending on location. The lower end of the prepay market was reported at Lima, Ohio, and Kingston and Seneca, Ill., with the upper end confirmed at Mount Vernon, Ind., and Henderson, Ky.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market reportedly firmed to $420-$430/st FOB Western Cornbelt terminals for prompt tons, depending on location. New prepay offers ranged from $470-$490/st FOB in the region, up a full $50/st from the previous week, with the low reported at Palmyra, Mo., and the high at Garner, Iowa.
Prompt ammonia pricing in the Southern Plains and South Central regions reportedly edged up to $360/st FOB Pryor and Woodward, Okla., $380/st FOB Verdigris, Okla., and $390/st FOB Donaldsonville, La., for truck tons. Sources reported no spring prepay offers out of southern production points in early February.
California:
The ammonia market in California remained at $379/st DEL in early February, with aqua ammonia posted at $109/st FOB. Sources said they expect a “significant increase” in March or later in February, however.
Pacific Northwest:
Anhydrous ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest has reportedly jumped to $455/st FOB Ritzville, Wash., and other regional terminals, with delivered tons quoted at $475-$488/st DEL for new offers, depending on location and supplier. Those levels reflected an increase of more than $100/st since the first of the year.
The aqua ammonia market was up a well, to $115-$130/st FOB, depending on location.
Western Canada:
Limited spring pricing for anhydrous ammonia in Western Canada was reported at C$805-$815/mt DEL in early February, up from C$730-$760/mt in mid-January.
Black Sea:
Ammonia prices in the region keep moving up. Trammo picked up a lot of 15,000 mt from Rassosh for $276/mt FOB. A second lot was also booked for March with a price yet to be determined. Sources said whatever gets done will be another move to the $300/mt FOB target of producers.
Traders are reportedly getting so many inquiries they are having a hard time finding tons to handle the potential deals. The limited tonnage and steady demand are providing a certain amount of optimism to producers and traders that the increases, while they may eventually slow down, will not dramatically reverse.
One trader said even if the plants in the Arab Gulf and Trinidad come back online to full production, demand will still be strong enough to keep Yuzhnyy from dropping below $200/mt FOB again.
Middle East:
Sources reported just enough Arab production to cover contractual needs, adding that inquiries for spot tons are quickly dismissed with reports of nothing available. Because of the lack of spot tons, the industry is not able to nail down a new price. If tons do pop up, however, one trader said the price would be about $300/mt FOB, instead of the current $280/mt FOB calculated from the last FACT/India tender.
Egypt sold a cargo of 15,000 mt through Fertiglobe to Namhae for $400/mt CFR. The estimated netback on the sale is $320/mt FOB. Sources said the fact that this trader had to go to Egypt for material for their Southeast Asian customer shows just how tight supplies are from the Arab Gulf to Southeast Asia. The price helped set a higher market in the Pacific.
A sale from Algeria to Koch at $340/mt FOB also helped set indications for new prices in Northwest Europe that are much higher than other deals that feed into Antwerp would indicate.
Southeast Asia:
Besides the 15,000 mt that Fertiglobe obtained in Egypt for Namhae, a second lot of the same amount was bought by Mitsui from Indonesia for Lotte. Sources said the Indonesian product sold for $390/mt CFR.
The two sales dramatically moved up prices in Southeast Asia from the $360/mt CFR level reported just last week. Sources said Chinese buyers will end up having to pay at the higher end of the scale as they come into the market to cover lost domestic production due to energy issues and spot closures caused by COVID-19 shutdowns.
Northwest Europe:
The Baltic ammonia price for February came in higher than expected. Initial talks were focused on a high of $275/mt FOB thanks to a quick deal settled at the end of January. The new price is now pegged at $280/mt FOB for this month, however.
Higher prices in the Baltics, North Africa, and Yuzhnyy are combining to push up prices in Northwest Europe. Immediately the Baltic price pushed Antwerp to $320-$330/mt C&F, although calculations from the Koch purchase in Algeria suggests a price closer to $380/mt C&F. If Yuzhnyy producers are successful in getting $300/mt FOB, sources said the Northwest Europe price would be at $350/mt C&F.
The most likely result of the shifts, said one trader, is that the Northwest Europe price will drift slowly closer to the $350/mt C&F price this week as buyers look to cover their needs against limited resources.