Central Florida:
Sources described rising Central Florida DAP truck prices for the week. While posted rates were reported holding steady at the week-ago $485/st FOB level, market sources quoted tons transacting up to $515/st FOB.
MAP trucks followed a similar pattern. While postings were quoted as low as $505/st FOB, sales were reported up to $545/st FOB, up from the prior $475-$505/st FOB range.
U.S. Gulf:
Pricing on the NOLA barge phosphate markets continued to surge higher for the week, players said
Physical DAP barges at the start of the week were quoted trading at a $525/st FOB floor for domestically produced material, rising from the week-ago $475/st FOB low, while imports moved up to $545-$555/st FOB as the week wore on. Rumored early-week offers heard at $510/st FOB went unconfirmed on Feb. 4. The market’s prior high was quoted at $525/st FOB.
MAP tons were thinly traded for a second consecutive week, with only a handful of barges reported available through the period. Traders quoted a $595/st FOB high on Feb. 3, while early-week price ideas were typically noted even with the week-ago $550/st FOB ceiling.
A mix of persistent weak supply, robust grain pricing, and the potential for an early spring planting season continued to prop up values, leading some end-users to consider the prospect of reducing fertilizer application rates for the coming season, sources said.
The physical DAP barge market was quoted in the $525-$555/st FOB range, firming from $475-$525/st FOB at last report. MAP barge price ideas and sales were reported in the $550-$595/st FOB range, up from $500-$550/st FOB the week before.
U.S. Exports:
Market players reported a 5,000 mt DAP cargo selling into a single destination in Latin America during the week. Priced at $497/mt CFR, the tons were slated to load in second-half March.
Based on reported sales, the Gulf phosphate export markets were reported at $497/mt FOB for the week, firming from $460-$470/mt FOB in the prior report.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP and MAP prices in the Eastern Cornbelt saw multiple increases during the week, fueled by very tight supply and climbing NOLA values. DAP at Cincinnati was quoted at $555-$565/st FOB at midweek, up some $40/st from the prior week, but prices ended up again on Feb. 4 to $575-$585/st FOB Cincinnati and spot Illinois River terminals.
MAP prices climbed even higher. The week started with MAP pricing in the $580-$600/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. By Feb. 4, the market had firmed to $600-$650/st FOB in the region, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low again reported at Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP prices surged to $555-$585/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, up a full $45-$55/st from the prior week. Sources quoted the St. Louis DAP market at $560-$580/st FOB, with the higher numbers confirmed later in the week.
The MAP market also saw another significant increase, firming to $625-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from $555-$595/st FOB the week before.
In the Southern Plains, sources pegged the Catoosa/Inola market at $570-$595/st FOB for DAP and $640-$675/st FOB for MAP as the week progressed, up dramatically from the prior week’s $515-$540/st FOB for DAP and $585-$600/st FOB for MAP. The St. Paul market ramped up quickly as well, to $585/st FOB for DAP and $650-$675/st FOB for MAP.
Southeast:
Nutrien announced another increase for DAP and MAP at Aurora, N.C. Postings reported firmed during the week to $550/st FOB for both products, up from $480/st FOB the previous week.
California:
The MAP market was pegged at a solid $660/st FOB or DEL in California as of Feb. 1, up $30/st from the previous week and some $85/st higher than mid-January. Prices firmed again on Feb. 4, however, to a high of $690/st FOB or DEL in the state.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP pricing as of Feb. 1 was quoted at $647/st FOB Aurora; $650/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, and northern Idaho; $640/st DEL in southern Idaho and Utah; and $630/st DEL in Montana. Those levels were up $30/st from late January, a full $85/st higher than mid-January reference prices, and some $130/st higher than Dec. 8 postings.
Another MAP increase took effect on Feb. 4, however, with new postings firming roughly $30/st again, to $660-$680/st DEL in the region.
Western Canada:
The MAP market in Western Canada was reported at C$895-$915/mt FOB for new offers in early February, up dramatically from the C$715-$730/mt FOB level reported in mid-January. Sources said delivered MAP offers in the region were north of C$900/mt as the week progressed.
Saudi Arabia:
The Saudi Arabia phosphate export market was reportedly moving up, with last-done trades in the $450-$470/mt FOB range, spiking from $400-$405/mt FOB reported previously. Sources expected continued firming in the next round of business, noting rumored mid-$500s/mt CFR offers into Brazil.
China:
Availability of DAP in China is almost nil. Sources said it was the rare order that gets filled. One such order was 25,000 mt shipped to Thailand at $505/mt CFR for a netback of $480/mt FOB, up about $35/mt FOB in one week.
Sources said talks with producers for any size of cargo usually started with the producers asking $500/mt FOB and then reluctantly sliding down, but only if the tonnage was available. Traders said supplies for export are limited.
Some of the producers said they want to make sure they have enough tons in reserve to satisfy the central government’s desire to provide full stockpiles for the spring application season. At the same time, phosphate plants are being affected by limitations on travel and understaffing caused by COVID-19 hotspots that are popping up around China, especially in the main production area.
India:
Buyers are looking for deals and finding none. Publicly Indian buyers said they are holding to the idea of paying no more than $400/mt CFR for DAP. Unfortunately for them, the price is now approaching $500/mt FOB.
Some large firms such as NFL are in direct talks with Chinese producers to secure large quantities in one-year contracts. In the case of NFL, the company wants 850,000 mt of DAP and other assorted phosphate-based fertilizers from June 2021 through June 2022. Sources said the talks are still at the general stage and have not broached pricing or how to adjust prices as the seasons progress.
Sources said by booking a year-long contract, NFL might be more willing to accept the current high prices in the expectations that prices will come down and the costs will average out to its favor. In addition, it allows them to avoid holding regular tenders that could boost the price with each call.
For the producers, the upside is that they will have a solid market for a large portion of their output for one year. The downside is that if the price drops below production costs or if the buyer refuses to take the tons until the price drops, they might end up losing money.
Talks are expected to continue for another week before China closes for the Lunar New Year celebrations.
Brazil:
Prices for MAP keep moving up. By midweek, a sale at $525/mt CFR in Paranagua was confirmed. On the heels of that deal, a Saudi offer for early March was reportedly floated at $540/mt FOB. By week’s end, traders were talking about deals closing at $550/mt CFR.
The limited tonnage available inland showed itself in the Rondonopolis price. Sources reported sales at $640-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse, up from $592-$610/mt FOB last week. The barter rate remained at 1 mt of MAP for 75 bags of corn. The soybean ration, however, widened to 31 bags for 1 mt of MAP.