Central Florida:
Truck-loaded DAP firmed to $530/st FOB Central Florida during the week, increasing from $485-$515/st FOB reported previously. MAP trucks were reported at $545-$560/st, firming from $505-$545/st FOB the week before.
U.S. Gulf:
Price action on the NOLA barge phosphate markets finally took a breather, with both DAP and MAP barges reportedly edging lower.
DAP highs were seen rolling back from the week-ago $555/st FOB high to around $540/st FOB, with sources noting $535-$540/st FOB offers finding limited traction in early-week trading. Barges were quoted changing hands down to $520-$525/st FOB on Feb. 11, falling from the previous $525/st FOB low, while trading rumored down to $515/st FOB went unconfirmed for the period.
MAP barges were quoted trading at a $551/st FOB low on Feb. 11, inching above the prior week’s $550/st FOB floor. Early-week offers at $595/st FOB unexpectedly dropped to $565/st FOB on Feb. 10, sources said, revealing a moderating sentiment as the week wore on.
Players attributed the softer market to reduced overall trading volume and a week of wet, cold weather in parts of the Midwest.
The DOC’s Feb. 8 final countervailing duties determination on imports from Morocco and Russia did little to move the market, sources said. The determination will be sent to the ITC for a final decision, expected on March 25. The DOC set final subsidy rates at 19.97 percent for tons originating from Morocco, and 9.19-47.05 percent on material shipping from Russia.
Sources pegged DAP barges in a tighter $520-$540/st FOB range for the week, falling from $525-$555/st FOB in the prior report. MAP barge trades and offers moved to $551-$595/st FOB for the full week, shifting from $550-$595/st FOB the week before, although sources called the market closer to $551-$565/st FOB on Feb. 11.
U.S. Imports:
December 2020 DAP imports were reported at 7,100 st, a 93.1 percent year-over-year decline from 103,229 st. Imports were also lower in the July-December fertilizer year-to-date, falling 24.5 percent to 462,931 st from the year-ago 613,234 st.
Moroccan imports were down 93.7 percent for the July-December period, to 24,251 st in 2020 compared with 386,042 st in 2019, as importers continued to draw on alternative sources of DAP, according to DOC data.
Saudi Arabia topped the DAP import market with 154,257 st in July-December, rising 69.3 percent from the year-ago 91,117 st. Australian receipts totaled 152,099 st after recording zero imports through the same point in 2019. Buyers sourced 47,062 st from Egypt in the current period after buying no Egyptian tons in July-December 2019. Russian imports were down 29.3 percent year-over-year, to 35,641 st from 50,398 st.
December imports in the MAP/Other category were noted at 99,329 st, falling 47.5 percent from the year-ago 189,105 st. July-December volumes dropped 62.0 percent, to 437,379 st from 1.15 million st in the prior year.
Mexico dominated the fertilizer year-to-date with 147,449 st received through December, a 131.0 percent increase versus 63,831 st recorded in the previous year. Russia’s 71,219 st lagged its year-ago 81,101 st total by 12.1 percent, while the 63,362 st originating from Saudi Arabia was 12.0 percent above that market’s prior-year total.
Additionally, the data showed 59,482 st of Australian MAP imported for the period, as well as 54,303 st from Lithuania. Zero Australian cargoes were imported to the U.S. in July-December 2019, while just 414 st of Lithuanian material found its way to U.S. soil during that period. Tons sourced from Morocco totaled just 31,438 st in July-December, falling 95.9 percent from the year-ago 759,231 st. Russian imports softened 12.1 percent year-over-year, to 71,219 st.
U.S. Exports:
DAP exports for December were logged at 87,070 st, a 30.1 percent decline from the year-ago 124,546 st. July-December offshore tons fell 31.0 percent, to 423,440 st from 613,335 st reported one year earlier.
MAP/Other exports for December softened to 186,788 st, off 26.4 percent from 253,777 st in the prior year. July-December totals were reported at 1.07 million st, down 21.2 percent from the year-ago 1.36 million st.
Mosaic on Feb. 11 announced a 7,000 mt export trade into a single destination in Northern Latin America. The material, comprised of 5,000 mt of DAP and 2,000 mt of MAP, was priced at $530/mt FOB and slated for loading in late March.
The U.S. Gulf export phosphate markets were pegged at $530/mt FOB for the period, rising from $497/mt FOB in the prior report. Offers for the next round of business were quoted firming to $580/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted solidly in the $567-$585/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Ottawa and the Cincinnati market pegged at $575-$585/st FOB. The MAP market was quoted at $625-$650/st FOB in the region.
Out of Michigan warehouses, sources quoted DAP at $605-$610/st FOB and MAP at $630-$660/st FOB in early February.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP prices strengthened to $565-$585/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment from last report, with the low reported at St. Louis and reflecting a $10/st increase from report. The DAP market FOB Dubuque, Iowa, and Catoosa/Inola was pegged solidly at the $575-$585/st FOB level for new business.
The MAP market remained at $625-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, unchanged from the prior week. MAP pricing at Catoosa/Inola ranged broadly from $625-$675/st FOB, with sources reporting “limited options” for available tons at midweek.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing FOB St. Paul was reported at $585-$595/st FOB at midweek, up another $10/st from the previous week and some $125/st higher on average than mid-January pricing levels. The MAP market was quoted firmly in the $650-$675/st range FOB St. Paul in early February.
Northeast:
DAP pricing in the Northeast surged to $595/st FOB East Liverpool during the week, up a full $130/st since mid-January, with MAP climbing to $620/st FOB East Liverpool and $650/st FOB Fairless for February-April tons.
Eastern Canada:
MAP was quoted at C$698-$720/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up a full C$105-$115/mt from late December, with some sources noting that current levels should be even higher based on today’s replacement costs. DAP was pegged at C$676/mt FOB Montreal in early February, up nearly C$80/mt from last report.
Saudi Arabia:
Phosphate cargoes originating from Saudi Arabia were reported firming to at least $510-$530/mt FOB, rising from $450-$470/mt FOB noted previously.
China:
The last bit of DAP business was pegged at $490/mt FOB in China. At the same time, sources said producers were quoting $500-$505/mt FOB before they started to take time off for the Lunar New Year celebrations. Some traders speculated the producers may get their wish when they return from the holiday after Feb. 22.
India:
Several DAP buyers were talking with producers in China and the Middle East looking for tons to be shipped in March. Sources said the pricing ideas of the two sides remains distant.Reportedly, the buyers are looking at prices around $460/mt CFR, while producers are all looking at prices closer to $490/mt FOB and up.
Sources said the situation will come to a head soon. Reportedly, DAP supplies in India are low, and demand for more material by farmers will begin stepping up in late March and early April.At this point, said one trader, the price is immaterial because available DAP is limited to non-existent.
Brazil:
Prices of MAP keep moving up, with quotes at Paranagua rising $50-$60/mt due to continued demand and limited tonnage inland. Sources reported the current price at the port at $570-$600/mt CFR. The Rondonopolis price is now pegged at $670-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Sources said some large buyers are looking to nail down tonnage for the 2021/22 season but are finding few takers. Sellers are reportedly reluctant to agree to long-range pricing at a time when the market is rapidly moving up. In the meantime, buyers looking for top-off tons for short-term needs are finding it difficult to get the material. Sources in Goias state said MAP shortages are preventing farmers from getting what they want.
The barter rates remain steady. Sources said 1 mt of MAP is still worth 75 bags of corn or 31 bags of soybeans.