Nutrien Reports Strong 4Q; Expects Momentum to Continue

Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, reported positive results for the fourth quarter, posting net earnings of $316 million ($0.55 per diluted share) versus a year-ago loss of $48 million ($0.08 per share). It also topped analyst expectations of $93 million for the quarter, according to the Bloomberg Consensus, the average estimate of major analysts. Adjusted EBITDA was up 16 percent, to $768 million from $664 million. Sales were $4.05 billion, up from the year-ago $3.5 billion.

Despite the positive fourth quarter, full-year net income was down 54 percent at $459 million from $992 million, though again, Nutrien beat analyst estimates of $227 million. Adjusted EBITDA was off 9 percent, to $3.67 billion from the year-ago $4 billion. Sales were up at $20.91 billion from $20.1 billion,

“Nutrien reported excellent results across our entire business,” said Chuck Magro, Nutrien President and CEO. “Our Retail Ag Solutions business delivered a record fourth quarter, and we also reported higher potash and nitrogen sales volumes and lower production costs. Agriculture fundamentals began to improve in late 2020 and we are starting to see the benefit to our business from this cyclical recovery.”

The company announced a dividend increase and new share buyback program. The Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.46 per share, the third dividend increase in three years, with an annualized payout at $1.84 per share. The board also approved the purchase of up to five percent of Nutrien’s outstanding common shares over a one-year period through a normal course issuer bid (NCIB).

Nutrien said global potash demand surpassed expectations in late 2020, and it now estimates world potash shipments reached record levels at approximately 68 million mt. Citing demand momentum supported by favorable crop economics, high potash affordability, and limited inventory build in major markets, the company forecasts 2021 global potash shipments of 68-70 million mt.

The company issued 2021 adjusted net earnings guidance of $2.05-$2.75 per share and 2021 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.0-$4.5 billion. Other guidance includes:

  Low High
Retail Adjusted EBITDA (billions) 1.5 1.6
Potash Adjusted EBITDA (billions) 1.4 1.6
Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA (billions) 1.1 1.3
Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA (millions) 250 350
Potash sales volumes (millions) 12.5 13
Nitrogen sales volumes (millions) 10.9 11.4
Retail (millions) 4Q-20 4Q-10 2020 2109
EBITDA 297 231 1,430 1,231
Gross Margin 885 756 3,736 3,301
Total Sales 2,618 2,191 14,785 13,282
CN Sales 1,108 907 5,200 4,989
CN (Vol.) (000 mt) 2,685 2,117 12,732 11,048
Avg ($/mt) 413 428 408 452
Margin per mt 88 88 89 93
Potash (millions) 4Q-20 4Q-10 2020 2109
EBITDA 219 149 1,167 1,593
Gross Margin 145 139 963 1,501
Total Sales 450 350 2,146 2,603
Sales Vol. (000 mt) 2,654 1,885 12,824 11,521
Avg ($/mt) 170 186 167 226
Nitrogen (millions) 4Q-20 4Q-10 2020 2109
EBITDA 512 259 1,299 1,239
Gross Margin 112 107 475 700
Total Sales 555 500 2,222 2,381
Sales Vol. (000 mt) 2,845 2,362 10,966 10,270
Avg ($/mt) 195 212 203 232
Phosphate (millions) 4Q-20 4Q-10 2020 2109
EBITDA 63 54 (537) 194
Gross Margin 16 6 36 (5)
Total Sales 280 260 1,075 1,216
Sales Vol. (000 mt) 648 647 2,781 2,889
Avg ($/mt) 433 403 387 421