U.S. Gulf:
Potash prices were pegged in the $305-$325/st FOB range for late February/March barges, up from the week-ago $280-$314/st FOB. Sources said April barges were being discussed at $315-$320/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
After a surge the previous week on the back of a $50/st price hike by domestic producers, sources said potash prices in the Eastern Cornbelt generally fell in the $335-$355/st FOB range out of river warehouses at mid-month, with producer postings reported at $375-$380/st FOB for new Q2 offers.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market was reported at $340-$380/st FOB, with the upper end reflecting producer postings. Sources quoted the St. Louis market at $340-$355/st FOB, with Caruthersville pricing firmly at the $360/st FOB level. The St. Paul potash market was reported at $345-$375/st FOB at mid-month.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was quoted at $345-$365/st FOB Catoosa/Inola for new offers. Feb. 8 postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., include $430/st for 60 percent white granular and $437/st for 62 percent white standard, up $50/st from the previous list prices and a full $140/st higher than 2020 summer fill values.
South Central:
Potash prices were quoted at $330-$365/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, steady from the previous week but up $25-$50/st from early February, with the low reported at Memphis and the high at Shreveport. Sources quoted most Arkansas River terminals firmly at the $360/st FOB level at midweek.
Southeast:
Potash was pegged at $340/st FOB or higher at Wilmington, N.C., with rail-DEL offers ranging from $368-$395/st in the Southeast, depending on grade and time of shipment.
China/India:
Belaruskali/Belarus Potash Co. remains the only major player to have inked new potash supply contracts with China and India, setting the new price at $247/mt CFR for both markets (GM Jan. 29, p. 17; Feb. 12, p. 16), a level that dismayed other major potash producers/suppliers.
Nutrien Ltd. President and CEO Chuck Magro, in a company earnings call on Feb. 18, reiterated Nutrien’s position that the new price is not reflective of current market conditions.Following the announcement of the new India contact, both Canpotex and Nutrien said they would not follow this price level for potential sales into India in 2021 (GM Feb. 5, p. 16).
“The way we are thinking about India and China is all options are on the table,” Magro told analysts on Feb. 18. “These markets are now clearly our lowest netbacks, so we are going to allocate our volume accordingly, and I certainly don’t expect us to put significant volume into those markets at disconnected price levels from the rest of the world.”
Magro said Canpotex remains active in discussions with India and China buyers, but added that Nutrien has “better places to put its potash.”
Mosaic Co. President and CEO Joc O’Rourke told analysts at the company’s earnings call on Feb. 18 that Mosaic would not be negotiating contracts with India or China on its own and would expect Canpotex to take “a holistic view” when it interacts with Indian and Chinese buyers.
Brazil:
Second semester sales of MOP are now being reported at $320/mt CFR in Brazil, reflecting an increase in prices at the receiving ports. The price at Rondonopolis, however, has remained steady at $380-$425/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The barter rate for 1 mt is still 20 bags of soybeans and 55 bags of corn.
The price for MOP for February remains at $280-$305/mt CFR, based on previous deals for the product. The issue with MOP is its scarcity. Sources said inland buyers are still having problems finding tons to top off their seasonal needs.
| Brazil MOP Prices | ||
| Terminal/City | US$/mt FOB | |
| Week ending 02/12 | Week Ending 02/19 | |
| Rondonopolis | 380-425 | 380-425 |
| Sorriso | 399 | 399 |
Rains at this time of year traditionally slow down unloading and delivery, and this year is no exception. Industry sources are complaining of delays at the ports getting the product off the vessel, with the rains causing additional delays moving the product inland.