U.S. Gulf:
Potash barge prices continued to be called $305-$325/st FOB for March. While some reported the higher end of the range, others cited profit taking for the lower end.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $350-$380/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market reported at the $360/st FOB level for new offers at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market was pegged at $345-$375/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the Catoosa/Inola market quoted at $345-$355/st FOB.
California:
Potash prices in California remained at the $455/st FOB level for 60 percent MOP and $465/st FOB for 62 percent.
Pacific Northwest:
Potash was pegged at $420-$430/st FOB and $425-$435/st rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest, up roughly $15-$25/st from last report, depending on grade and location. Potash postings from Intrepid FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, moved up $50/st on Feb. 8, to $425/st FOB for 60 percent white standard and $430/st FOB for 60 percent white granular.
Western Canada:
Western Canada sources reported potash pricing in a wide C$480-$530/mt range FOB Saskatchewan mines for Q2 offers, with the upper end reflecting the latest reference prices from producers. “For now, there is likely some fishing behind the net, but it is expected that values fill firm over the coming weeks,” said one regional source.
India:
Potash import purchases in the upcoming new fiscal year, starting April 1, may drop from an estimated 5.5 million mt in the current fiscal, according to a Bloomberg report this week, citing India’s biggest potash importer, Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL). IPL accounts for almost 50 percent of the country’s potash imports.
IPL Managing Director P.S. Gahlaut did not provide an import forecast, but said demand will weaken as India still has a sizeable potash stockpile. Furthermore, consumption of potash in India is very price sensitive, he told Bloomberg.“When prices have gone up, there is an immediate effect on consumption,” he said.
Gahlaut put potash stockpiles of companies and traders in the country at still more than 1 million mt. The proposed 11 percent cut in subsidies for imported phosphate fertilizers and potash for the new fiscal year will further dent demand, he said.
India’s potash imports were up 26 percent through the first 11 months of calendar 2020, at 4.7 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.
To date, Belarus Potash Co. (BPC) remains the only international supplier to sign a new contract supply deal with India at $247/mt with 180 days’ credit. While $17/mt higher than last year’s contract, the deal dismayed other major potash producers/suppliers who believe the price is not reflective of current market conditions.
Weaker Indian demand could put pressure on their price aspirations, as well as their volumes.
A tender by NFL for 275,000 mt of MOP closes on March 1 after being deferred from Feb. 22. The tender is for deliveries in four distinct periods between April and June.
| Product | Color | Quantity (mt) | Delivery Coast | Tentative shipment period |
| MOP (Standard) | Pink/Red | 150,000 | 60,000 MT West 90,000 MT East | 01.04.2021 – 15.06.2021 |
| MOP (Standard) | Pink/Red | 75,000 | 30,000 MT West 45,000 MT East | 01.09.2021 – 31.12.2021 |
| MOP (Standard) | White | 25,000 | 25,000 MT West | 01.04.2021 – 15.06.2021 |
| MOP (Granular) | Pink/Red | 25,000 | 25,000 MT West | 01.04.2021 – 15.06.2021 |
The corrigendum included dropping “crystalline/granular” as a requirement for the product, leaving only the generic requirements of being “free flowing” and the color of the MOP. Another change altered the minimum price for calculating discounts for large quantities from $230/mt CFR to $247/mt CFR with 180 days credit.
Brazil:
The potash market in Brazil tightened a bit, with the top end of last week’s range coming down. The new price being quoted in Paranagua is $280-$300/mt CFR. Sources said the shift came as the number of offers also dwindled.
Inland prices remained stable, with Rondonopolis reporting prices at $380-$419/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Likewise, Sorriso is stable at $399/mt FOB. The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP remains at 20 bags of soybeans and 55 bags of corn.
Russia:
Exports in 2020 were up slightly from 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. The 2020 MOP exports were recorded at 9.5 million mt against 2019 exports of 9.4 million mt.
The top buyers were Brazil at 2.7 million mt, down from 3 million mt in 2019; China at 1.8 million mt, down from 2.3 million mt in 2019; Estonia at 837,000 mt, up from 437,000 mt in 2019; and India at 823,000 mt, up from 450,000 mt in 2019. An additional 21 countries imported 35,000 mt to 500,000 mt each.
Indonesia:
Imports of MOP in 2020 were reported at 2.9 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up about 1.7 percent from 2.8 million mt in 2019. The largest supplier was Canada at 1.2 million mt, up from 962,000 mt in 2019. Belarus and Russia were the next largest suppliers at 569,000 mt and 496,000 mt, respectively.
Malaysia:
The country imported 1.3 million mt of MOP in 2020, up from 1.1 million mt in 2019. Canada sent 566,000 mt to Malaysia, followed by Russia at 246,000 mt.