U.S. Gulf:
New potash barge trades were put in the $315-$323/st FOB range, off a bit from the week-ago $315-$325/st FOB. Sources said a push to move prices higher to $335/st FOB fell flat, with most now bidding sub-$315/st FOB.
U.S. Imports:
Potash imports for the July-January fertilizer year-to-date were up 12.8 percent, to 7.61 million st from 6.74 million st in the prior year. January imports firmed 32.7 percent, to 1.30 million st from 981,528 st.
Canada remained the market’s undisputed import heavyweight for the fertilizer year-to-date with 6.33 million st received through January, up 9.5 percent from the previous year’s 5.78 million st total. Russia added 634,070 st for the period, up 48.5 percent from the prior year’s 426,969 st, while tons loading from Belarus fell 5.6 percent, to 395,735 st from 419,071 st. An additional 174,885 st came from Israel during the period, up 169.6 percent from the year-ago 64,865 st total.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $355-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the Cincinnati and Ottawa markets reported at the $360-$365/st FOB level at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market was reported at $355-$375/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up slightly at the low end of the range, with the bulk of river offers pegged at the $355-$365/st FOB level at mid-month.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was quoted at $350/st FOB Houston and $355-$365/st FOB Catoosa/Inola for new offers. Postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., remained at $430/st for 60 percent white granular and $437/st for 62 percent white standard.
South Central:
Potash prices were quoted at $350-$365/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, up $20/st at the low end of the range, with the bulk of new offers out of Arkansas River terminals reported in the $355-$360/st FOB range at mid-month.
Southeast:
Potash remained at $340/st FOB or higher at Wilmington, with rail-DEL offers in the Southeast ranging from the upper-$390s/st to low-$400s/st for Canadian tons. The potash market FOB Fairless Hills was steady at $360/st FOB for March-May shipment.
China/India/Southeast Asia:
There continues to be a lack of follow-up contract signings following Belarus Potash Co.’s (BPC) settling of new supply contracts with customers in both India and China in late January (GM Jan. 29, p. 17) and mid-February (GM Feb. 12, p. 16), respectively.
At the BMO 30th Global Metals and Mining conference call last week, Nutrien CEO and President Chuck Magro reiterated that Nutrien still has no new supply contracts with India and China and is working through “all of its options.”
Magro said Nutrien’s volumes through Canpotex to both countries will be smaller this year as the company prioritizes higher netback regions such as Brazil, the U.S., and Southeast Asia amid good demand and “solid” price momentum.
Magro said prices in Southeast Asia had been lagging, but Nutrien is now seeing some standard business transacted at $280/mt CFR. Overall, Magro said he believes potash supply/demand is “really tightening” with continued tightness going forward.
Brazil:
The price range in Brazil widened and rose as demand for MOP continues. Sources put the Paranagua price at $312-$330/mt CFR. Sources said the August-September pricing ideas under discussion will bring up the lower end of the range to $315/mt CFR.
Prices at Rondonopolis seem to be anchored at $400/mt FOB ex-warehouse, but with growth at the upper end of the quoted range. Sources said prices as high as $437/mt FOB ex-warehouse have been done.
The barter rate for MOP has shifted slightly as crop income and fertilizer prices are being affected by currency fluctuations. Sources said 1 mt of MOP is now equal to 54.5 bags of corn, down from 56 bags last week, and 16.5 bags of soybeans, down from 21 bags last week.
Imports of MOP for the first two months of the year rose to 1.7 million mt, compared with 972,000 mt from the same period in 2020. February imports were at 998,000 mt against 337,000 mt in February 2020.