U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia prices for April continued at $545/mt CFR, with NOLA barges last done at $545/st FOB.
No huge changes are expected for Tampa ammonia in May. While sellers may still be looking for some increase, others said a rollover or slight decrease are more likely, absent any new major supply disruptions.
Mosaic, which has already said that it is now benefiting from its long-term supply deal with CF, indicated it will take all the tons it can from the domestic producer while Tampa spot prices are high.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report steady preplant ammonia demand in some northern areas of the Eastern Cornbelt, but the pace was winding down. Terminal prices were reported at $600/st FOB Kingston Mines, Ill.; $610/st FOB Huntington, Ind.; $625/st FOB Trilla and Wood River, Ill.; $630/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and $650/st FOB Mt. Vernon, Ind., Henderson, Ky., and Lima, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices remained at $600-$615/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Palmyra, Mo., and out of spot locations in Nebraska. Terminal pricing in Iowa continued to range from $605-$615/st FOB.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia was quoted at $575-$600/st FOB Oklahoma production points, depending on location, with pricing at Coffeyville, Kan., pegged at $600-$615/st FOB. Truck tons out of Beaumont/Houston, Texas, were reported in the $550-$600/st FOB range, based on netbacks.
South Central:
Ammonia truck pricing remained at $600/st FOB El Dorado, Ark., in mid-April. Upgrades to the Memphis ammonia terminal were reportedly in the final stages, with sources expecting tons to be available from that location again in the near term.
Southeast:
Sources continued to report limited truck ammonia offers at $575-$580/st FOB Augusta, Ga., and $610/st FOB Tampa.
Black Sea:
Ammonia prices have stopped their ascent. Sources said the market is now sitting at $455/mt FOB, and even producers are no longer arguing for a higher level.
International traders said the push on prices started slowing down as the month began, but until this week, the market kept showing signs of additional strength. Now, said sources, they see little space for higher prices.
Middle East:
Spot prices remain stable only because there is no material available for spot sales. Sources said supplies in the Arab Gulf remain tight and should stay that way for a few more weeks.
Reports that the Ma’aden 4 plant is up and running have raised hopes that some extra ammonia will soon be available. One trader said it will take another two or three weeks before the backlog on the demand side is fully covered and any spot tons can be offered, however.
Iranian exports of ammonia for the first quarter were reported at 125,000 mt. The main buyer of Iranian ammonia in the first quarter was India, taking 79,000 mt of the total.
No numbers were available for 2020 exports, but Trade Data Monitor reported first-quarter 2019 exports at 103,000 mt. March exports for 2021 were reported at 20,000 mt, of which India took 19,000 mt. The March 2019 exports were reported at 38,000 mt.
India:
No new tenders have been called, even though there are reports of a strong need for ammonia in the country.
China:
Ammonia imports for the first quarter were up 71 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 356,000 mt from 208,000 mt during the first quarter of 2020.March imports alone were at 151,000 mt, up 79 percent from March 2020 imports of 84,000 mt. The top three suppliers to China in March were Saudi Arabia at 46,000 mt, Indonesia at 38,000 mt, and Egypt at 15,000 mt.
Northwest Europe:
The upward pressure on prices in Northwest Europe has abated. Sources said the current level of $520-$530/mt C&F is expected to roll over for at least another week.
The stability of pricing in the Black Sea is being matched by stable expectations from Baltic suppliers. While it is too early to begin serious talks about the May price, sources said the most likely outcome will be a rollover of the current $460-$470/mt FOB price out of the Baltics.
South Korea:
Ammonia imports for the first quarter showed a marginal 1 percent increase, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 380,000 mt from 376,000 mt for the same period in 2020. March imports were down 19 percent, to 144,000 mt from 178,000 mt in March 2020.
Thailand:
Ammonia imports for February were up 26 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 21,000 mt from 16,000 mt in February 2020. January-February 2021 imports were reported at 35,000 mt, compared with 32,000 mt for the same period in 2020.