The three largest North American-based fertilizer companies are all expected to show much improved first-quarter results over the year-ago quarter, according to the Bloomberg Consensus, the average projection from major analysts. All three will report results the week of May 3.
The Mosaic Co., Tampa, which posted a year-ago loss of $203 million, should see the biggest increase in income to an average estimate of $233.7 million, with analysts reporting a low of $204.8 million and a high of $273.9 million. The company benefits not only from the run-up in fertilizer prices due to higher crop prices, but also the positive countervailing duty decision on phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia. Net sales are put at $2.3 billion, up from the year-ago $1.8 billion, while adjusted EBITDA is seen as $562.3 million, up from $214 million.
Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, is also expected to pull out of the red, with the average earnings estimate put at $38.3 million compared to the year-ago loss of $35 million. Not all analysts thought the company would make it into the black, as the analyst range was minus $8 million to positive $77.7 million. Net sales are expected to be up at $4.4 billion from $4.2 billion, while adjusted EBITDA was put at the devilish $666.6 million, up from $508 million.
Net income for CF Industries Holdings Inc., Deerfield, Ill., was tagged at $119.9 million, up from the year-ago $68 million. The analyst range was $73 million to $264.4 million. Revenues are seen at $1.1 billion, up from $971 million and adjusted EBITDA was put at $390.6 million, up from $318 million.
| Mosaic | 1Q-21 Analyst | 1Q-20 Actual |
| Net Income | $233.7 M | ($203 M) |
| Net Sales | $2.3 B | $1.8 B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $562.3 M | $214 M |
| Nutrien | 1Q-21 Analyst | 1Q-20 Actual |
| Net Income | $38.3 M | ($35 M) |
| Net Sales | $4.4 B | $4.2 B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $666.6 M | $508 M |
| CF | 1Q-21 Analyst | 1Q-20 Actual |
| Net Income | $119.9 M | $68 M |
| Net Sales | $1.1 B | $971 M |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $390.6 M | $318 M |