Nutrien Beats Analyst Estimates, Raises Guidance

Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, announced first-quarter net earnings of $133 million ($0.22 per diluted share), up from the year-ago loss of $35 million ($0.06 per share) and beating $38.3 million, the Bloomberg Consensus average from major analysts.

Nutrien also posted adjusted EBITDA of $806 million, up from the year-ago $508 million and surpassing analyst projections of $666.6 million. Sales were $4.6 billion, beating both the year-ago $4.2 billion and analysts $4.4 billion.

“Our earnings and free cash flow1 results highlight the strength of our integrated business model, execution of strategic initiatives, and the recovery in global agricultural markets. Nutrien delivered a record first quarter for Retail and strong fertilizer volumes and margins,” said Mayo Schmidt, Nutrien’s President and CEO.

“Crop prices and cash margins are at multi-year highs and growers are responding accordingly with increased seeded acreage and a focus on maximizing yields, and our team at Nutrien is supporting them at every level,” Schmidt continued. “We are delivering the end-to-end services and products they need, including our full suite of crop inputs, digital tools, and innovative and sustainable solutions that help achieve higher yields.

This is a very exciting time for Nutrien, and the team is focused on executing Nutrien’s strategy and achieving operational excellence across our business,” he added.

The company said it expects U.S. corn and soybean acreage could be approximately four million acres above USDA’s Prospective Planting Report.

The company added that the cold weather in February slowed logistics and deferred offshore potash shipments by some 300,000 mt, which it expects to be recouped through the balance of the year. The company expects 2021 global potash demand at 68-70 million mt.

The company has bumped up its range for Chinese urea exports for the year, now seeing them at 4.0-5.5 million mt, with the top end of the range in line with 2020 exports.

As for speculation that a new, incoming leader might opt to spin off the company’s Retail segment, Schmidt told analysts he believes Wholesale and Retail were stronger together. He added that former President and CEO Chuck Magro’s departure was something Magro and the Board of Directors mutually agreed to after a decade of strong leadership.

Schmidt said the board is focused on an existing strategy to take the business to the next level. He said the company is putting a fresh set of eyes with leadership teams on the company’s operational excellence.

Nutrien also raised its guidance to full-year adjusted net earnings per share of $2.55-$3.25 per share from $2.05-$2.75 and adjusted EBITDA to $4.5-$4.9 billion, up from $4.0-4.5 billion. The company also tweaked up segment adjusted EBITDA expectations: Retail to $1.55-$1.65 billion from $1.5-$1.6 billion; Potash to $1.5-$1.7 billion from $1.4-$1.6 billion; Nitrogen to $1.3-$1.5 billion from $1.1-$1.3 billion, and Phosphate to $275-$375 million from $250-$350 million.

Retail (millions) 1Q-21 1Q-20
Adjusted EBITDA 109 7
Gross Margin 652 541
Total Sales 2,972 2,661
CN Sales 1,016 785
CN Margins 220 156
CN Vol. (000 mt) 2,400 2,025
Avg ($/mt) 423 387
CN gross margin per mt 92 77
Potash (millions) 1Q-21 1Q-20
Adjusted EBITDA 380 285
Gross Margin 320 252
Total Sales 611 517
Sales Vol. (000 mt) 3,157 2,877
Avg ($/mt) 194 180
Nitrogen (millions) 1Q-21 1Q-20
Adjusted EBITDA 300 236
Gross Margin 150 97
Total Sales 573 530
Sales Vol. (000 mt) 2,403 2,528
Avg ($/mt) 238 210
Gas Costs ($/mmBtu) 3.19 2.29
Phosphates (millions) 1Q-21 1Q-20
Adjusted EBITDA 97 46
Gross Margin 66 (7)
Total Sales 344 279
Sales Vol. (000 mt) 702 759
Avg ($/mt) 490 368