Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP trucks were quoted at $620/st FOB for the week, rising from $605/st FOB in the prior report. Truck-loaded MAP was posted at $655/st FOB Central Florida, increasing from the week-ago $645/st FOB. MAP trucks loading from North Florida were posted at $620/mt FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA DAP values pressed higher for the week, driven by ongoing supply uncertainty while shrugging off the cooling corn market.
DAP barges were noted moving up to a $615/st FOB floor in an “extremely quiet” market, a lift from the prior-week’s low of $595/st FOB, while trading noted up to $619/st FOB was typically quoted at the top of the range. Whispers of $620/st FOB were routinely floated, although most sources described that as a standing offer not yet traded as of June 17.
Pricing lifted higher at the bottom of the MAP range, with trading of domestically produced tons quoted at $650/st FOB, up $10/st from the week-ago $640. Concluded business was heard up to $655/st FOB, falling from the week-ago $660/st FOB high, while rumored $660-$665/st FOB deals went unconfirmed on June 17.
The NOLA barge DAP market was quoted in the $615-$619/st FOB range for the trading period, increasing from $595-$605/st FOB at last report. MAP barges were generally noted at $650-$655/st FOB, shifting from the prior-week’s $640-$660/st FOB.
U.S. Imports:
July-April DAP imports firmed 28.6 percent year-over-year, to 1.19 million st from 927,348 st. Totals were up 41.6 percent in April, to 171,600 st from the prior 121,192 st.
Saudi Arabia continued to lead July-April importers with 534,149 st, rising 486.2 percent from the year-ago 91,117 st, followed by Jordan’s 284,013 st and Australia’s 181,817 st. U.S. importers sourced zero tons from Jordan and Australia for the same period in 2019-2020.
MAP/Other imports softened 42.2 percent in April, to 107,046 st from the year-ago 185,055 st. Imports were down 42.6 percent for July-April, to 911,628 st from 1.59 million st.
Mexico led July-April MAP imports with 319,442 st, up 363.6 percent from 68,909 st in the prior year. Saudi Arabia’s 201,323 st was 105.6 percent above the year-ago 97,940 st, while 83,962 st from Russia registered 63.1 percent below the prior-year’s 227,743.
U.S. Exports:
April DAP exports softened 6.8 percent, to 74,904 st from the year-ago 80,367 st. July-April exports slid 29.8 percent, to 659,126 st from the prior-year 939,482 st.
April MAP/Other exports totaled 260,992 st, up 2.3 percent from the year-ago 255,011 st. July-April volumes dropped 20.3 percent, however, to 1.95 million st from 2.45 million st.
Mosaic reported a 6,000 mt DAP cargo sold into a single-market destination in Latin America, priced at $650/mt FOB. An additional MAP load weighing in a 5,000 mt was reported selling at $685/mt FOB. Both volumes were scheduled to ship in late July or early August.
Based on reported transactions, the Gulf DAP export market firmed to $650/mt FOB, while MAP exports lifted to $685/mt FOB. Phosphate exports were previously reported at $605/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $635-$650/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the lower end of the range confirmed at East Dubuque and LaSalle, Ill. The Cincinnati DAP market was quoted at $640-$650/st FOB, up $5/st from the previous week.
MAP prices firmed to $685-$700/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up another $10-$15/st, with the low reported at East Dubuque for June-July offers. Other terminal quotes at mid-month included $690/st FOB Ottawa and $690-$700/st FOB Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing firmed to $635-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $5-$10/st from last report, with both the high and low ends of the range reported in the St. Louis market as the week advanced. Pricing at Camanche and Dubuque, Iowa, was pegged at $640-$645/st FOB.
MAP was quoted in a tight range at $685-$690/st FOB in the region, also up $5-$10/st.
The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market was pegged at $635-$645/st FOB for DAP and $690 FOB or higher for MAP in mid-June.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing FOB St. Paul was reported in the $645-650/st FOB range, up another $5-$10/st from last report. MAP was pegged at $690-$700/st FOB St. Paul, also up $5-$10/st, with delivered tons quoted in the $700-$725/st range in central and western North Dakota.
Great Lakes:
Phosphate prices out of Great Lakes region terminals firmed to $650-$655/st FOB for DAP and $690-$710/st FOB for MAP, where available.
Northeast:
DAP prices in the Northeast strengthened to $650/st FOB East Liverpool, up $15/st from last report. The MAP market at East Liverpool surged to $710/st FOB at mid-month, a full $45/st higher than late-May levels. No phosphate tons or pricing were available at Fairless Hills in mid-June.
Eastern Canada:
By far the biggest price jump was reported for MAP in Eastern Canada. Sources quoted a very wide range of C$930-$1,010/mt FOB in mid-June, up a full C$125-$220/mt from early-May levels, depending on location.
As with most other product, some major wholesale suppliers were out of inventory until replacement cargoes arrive later this summer. DAP was reportedly unavailable in Eastern Canada, with no current prices reported.
Saudi Arabia:
Phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia were clocked at $550-$565/mt FOB, unmoved from one week earlier.
India:
Two DAP tenders are expected to offer a snapshot of the explosive market. The first tender by GSFC for 50,000 mt of DAP will close on June 18. The company is asking for delivery by the end of July to a West Coast port.
The other tender, which drew a lot of media attention, is from NFL. It is calling for two cargoes of 50,000 mt each, one to be delivered to a West Coast port and the other to an East Coast port. The tender closes on July 1 with shipment by Aug. 15.
Industry watchers said they do not expect much from the tenders. Availability from China and Arab producers is limited, prompting sources to speculate that the limited offers that might be submitted will reflect dramatically higher prices than currently under discussion.
The current price of $573-$580/mt CFR is no longer seen as viable given the prices being quoted out of China. Sources said the two tendering companies may end up looking at prices closer to $610/mt CFR, but only if China does not impose a rumored export tax on phosphates.
China:
Rumors gained strength during the week that Beijing was getting ready to impose a 50 percent duty on all phosphate exports. The move, like previous export duties imposed by Beijing, is designed to limit exports and support lower prices for the domestic market.
Sources said even without the duty, exports from China are rare. Sources said international traders have repeatedly come up empty in their talks with producers.
That is not to say that an occasional deal can be made, usually directly by a producer with an overseas buyer. Sources reported that YUC closed a DAP deal with a Latin American buyer that showed a netback of $570/mt FOB. The deal came on the heels of reports of smaller deals in the upper-$560s/mt FOB.
The rumors of the export duty, along with pushback from buyers who are not anxious to feed a hot market, have essentially frozen all talks about DAP sales out of China.
Brazil:
Sources reported stable but robust MAP demand in Brazil.
Paranagua is reported at $735-$750/mt CFR after deals last week shot past the $700/mt CFR mark. Sources said most of the business being conclude was in the $745-$750/mt CFR range as the week ended, leading observers to speculate that the price increases have not stopped.
The strong price in Brazil appears to have attracted some Chinese MAP. Sources said deals are being done for 11-44-0 MAP at a lower price than the 12-52-0 MAP offered by other suppliers.
Rondonopolis is showing a tighter price range. The lower end of the scale came up from last week to create a range of $843-$920/mt FOB ex-warehouse.