U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
July Tampa ammonia prices shot up $50/mt, to $585/mt CFR from June’s $535/mt CFR, with players citing the recent run-up in international prices, particularly in Asia.
Just a week earlier some players had argued that a major uptick was not necessary, as supplies in NOLA and Trinidad were plentiful. However, Trinidad tons were reaching as far as South Korea.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Prompt ammonia continued to be quoted at $615-$625/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana, and $615/st FOB Lima, Ohio. Sources said CF was offering limited ammonia fill tons for as low as $565/st FOB in Illinois and $570/st FOB in Indiana early in the week, but the program reportedly closed on June 24.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $600-$620/st FOB terminals in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri for the last prompt offers. Sources reported Q4 ammonia fill offers circulating at $640/st FOB Nebraska locations and $650/st FOB Fort Dodge, Iowa.
Southern Plains:
Sources said ammonia fill offers were circulating for as low as $500/st FOB Enid, Okla., before firming to $560/st FOB for July-September shipment. Limited fill offers were also reported at $560/st FOB Verdigris and Woodward, Okla.
South Central:
The ammonia market was pegged in the $540-$590/st FOB range out of terminals in the South Central region, down from last report, with the high quoted at Donaldsonville, La., for limited truck tons.
Black Sea:
The Black Sea ammonia market experienced a quiet and stable week. Sources reported no new deals to move the price off the $530/mt FOB mark. In fact, one deal to Turkey at $570/mt CFR is said to confirm the $530/mt FOB level.
Rumors throughout the week were focused on higher prices, however. Sources pointed to anticipated strong demand in India and the Far East for August deliveries to back up their ideas of higher prices. So far, the near-term goal is $550/mt FOB, with some arguing $570/mt FOB is attainable.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers remain short on product. Buyers are also well aware of the shortage from the area, and are looking elsewhere for spot tons.
The lack of any spot business keeps the public price at $610/mt FOB. However, sources said India still needs product for July and August, and some public tenders may be called soon. These tenders would give the world a public view of where people see the Arab Gulf market and help move the price off its current mark.
India:
Rumors are running strong that buyers still need tons for July and August deliveries. Buyers such as FACT have been hesitant to call tenders or declare their needs too openly because of the tightness in the ammonia market.
Indian buyers usually depend on Arab Gulf suppliers for their product. However, the growing shortness of material in the Arab Gulf has led buyers to look elsewhere. The need to go farther afield has also meant incurring higher freight rates, as well as paying a higher price for the actual product as global demand strengthens.
Sources said the buying orders for July and August could show dramatically higher prices offered to the Indian buyers. One trader noted that the Indians will have no choice but to pay up or cut back on the output of the domestic facilities requiring ammonia.
Northwest Europe:
Buyers from Baltic suppliers will most likely have to step up and accept higher ammonia prices for July tons, according to sources. The $50/mt increase in the Tampa price, combined with the steady upward movement from the Black Sea, have the Baltic buyers surrounded with pressure to accept higher rates.
Sources said talks are taking place, and so far everyone is being very tight lipped. One trader said no matter how quiet everyone is, he expects to see a significant jump in the price from the current June level of $435/mt FOB.
European importers are also being quiet about their prices. Sources said the current $520-$530/mt C&F level is no longer sustainable and must soon follow the higher prices from the Caribbean to the Black Sea.
Southeast Asia:
Demand from the area, led by China, continues to put pressure on suppliers from as far away as Yuzhnyy. Sources said agents of end users are desperately searching for any discounts on material for August deliveries.
Chinese ammonia imports were up 8.6 percent for the first five months of the year, to 472,000 mt from 401,000 mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. May 2021 imports were down about 30 percent, however, to 54,000 mt from 77,000 mt last year.