U.S. corn growers planted 92.7 million acres of corn this year, according to USDA’s June 30 Acreage report, up from the March 31 Prospective Plantings estimate of 91.1 million acres. This year’s planted acreage figure was also up two percent, or 1.87 million acres, from last year, and reflects the highest planted acreage total since 2016.
The corn acreage increase was expected in the wake of higher corn prices and favorable planting weather, but fell below analyst expectations. A Bloomberg Survey before the report’s release yielded an average forecast of 93.8 million acres.
Compared with last year, planted acreage increased in the Cornbelt states of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio, but remained unchanged in Iowa and fell slightly in Nebraska. The largest year-over-year increase occurred in drought-stricken North Dakota, which jumped to more than 24 million acres of corn this year, compared with nearly 21 million in 2020.
Planted soybean acreage is estimated at 87.6 million acres, unchanged from the March Prospective Plantings projection, but up five percent from last year and reflecting the highest acreage since 2018. USDA’s soybean acreage projection fell short of the average Bloomberg Survey forecast of 89.1 million, however.
Corn and soybean futures saw significant gains after the report’s release, with corn jumping by the exchange limit to $5.885/bushel, up as much as 7.3 percent from earlier in the day. Soybeans reached $14.0125/bushel after the report’s release, gaining 6.8 percent for their biggest rise since 2009.
“This surprise reduction in corn planted area sets a price floor for corn and soybean prices into 3Q, and ensures the market remains in ration mode as we head into the main growing season amid parched soils and a market hungry for corn,” said Alexis Maxwell, Green Markets Research Director.
“Though corn prices rose significantly after the report, fertilizer prices have risen more and demand destruction remains a big risk in 4Q,” Maxwell added. “This fall, as U.S. farmers go to apply fertilizers, they’ll see shockingly higher affordability ratios. The potash-to-corn affordability ratio has risen 41 percent from this period last year, and even in spite of corn’s limit up move on Wednesday.”
All wheat planted area for 2021 is pegged at 46.7 million acres, up slightly from the March estimate of 46.4 million acres and up five percent from 2020, but still reflecting the fourth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Of that total, winter wheat planted area is estimated at 33.7 million acres this year, with spring wheat at 11.6 million acres and durum at 1.48 million acres.
All cotton planted area for 2021 is estimated at 11.7 million acres, down from the March projection of 12.0 million acres and three percent lower than last year. This year’s rice crop is estimated at 2.66 million planted acres, down from 3.04 million acres last year.
USDA’s Natural Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report on June 30, which showed dramatically lower stockpiles of corn and soybeans versus a year ago. Corn stocks totaled 4.11 billion bushels, down 18 percent from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were down 39 percent from a year ago, but off-farm stocks were up 11 percent.
Soybeans stored totaled 767 million bushels, down 44 percent from June 1, 2020. On-farm soybean stocks were down 65 percent from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were down 27 percent. All wheat stored totaled 844 million bushels, down 18 percent from a year ago. On-farm all wheat stocks were down 38 percent from last year, while off-farm stocks were down 12 percent.