U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
August Tampa ammonia prices remained at $625/mt CFR. It may be too early to predict September prices. Both international and inland U.S. prices moved up after the Tampa uptick, though international markets appear to have stabilized despite tight supplies still being reported.
Mosaic President and CEO Joc O’Rourke told analysts on Aug. 3 that with the high Tampa spot prices, it has increased its take of contracted CF tons in the second-half. With those tons added to its own production, he said 75 percent of the company’s total ammonia needs will be based on natural gas and below the Tampa spot market.
Traditionally, the company splits its ammonia needs in thirds between its own production, CF, and Tampa spot.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices were quoted in the $645-$675/st range FOB Eastern Cornbelt terminals for prompt or fall prepay, up from the prior $635-$650/st FOB level, with the stronger terminal values reportedly following the higher Tampa price for August. Sources confirmed the low end of the range at Lima, Ohio, with the high in Indiana. Most Illinois terminals were pegged at the $665/st FOB level for fall prepay in early August.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing had reportedly firmed to $645-$665/st FOB for prompt or prepay in the Western Cornbelt, up $10-$15/st from last report, with the low quoted in Nebraska and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Sources reported most Iowa terminals at the $655/st FOB level in early August.
Southern Plains:
Prompt or fall prepay ammonia offers had reportedly firmed to $615-$635/st FOB Oklahoma production points, up from $580-$600/st FOB at last report. Gulf Coast terminals were also higher at $570/st FOB for truck tons. Sources said preplant ammonia applications on winter wheat ground were running in western and north-central Kansas.
South Central:
The ammonia market was pegged in the $570-$595/st FOB range out of terminals in the South Central region, up $30/st at the low end of the range, with the high reported for the last prompt offers at Memphis, Tenn., and the low for new truck offers out of Louisiana production points.
No current offers were reported out of El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Hopewell, Va.
Black Sea:
The ammonia market went quiet this week as buyers and sellers met to discuss deals for the end of August and into September. So far, no news of prices or quantities have floated out of the sessions.The absence of any new deals in the area leaves the price at $590/mt FOB.
Turkish imports of ammonia for the first half of the year were down 34 percent, to 435,000 mt from 660,000 mt during the first semester of 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor. Russia was the main supplier at 298,000 mt.
June 2021 imports were reported at 45,000 mt, down from 94,000 mt in June 2020, while second-quarter imports were down 38 percent, to 192,000 mt from the 310,000 mt imported during the same period last year. Russia was again the main supplier in the second quarter at 131,000 mt, down from 181,000 mt last year.
Middle East:
Ammonia supplies remain tight. Sources said the lack of any excess material prevents any new spot deals, leaving the public spot price at $620-$630/mt FOB.
Industry watchers are awaiting news of when the Ma’aden operation will be back up and running. Even when it does come back online, sources said most of the ammonia will be used for its own urea production. One trader noted, however, that this will put an end to Ma’aden looking around for product, and could free up ammonia for some other market.
India:
Sources said FACT needs ammonia for September and October deliveries, but there is no word yet on another tender. Recent efforts to buy have been stymied by either a lack of response from sellers due to no available material, or prices so high that the tenders had to be scrapped.
Reportedly, Indian buyers that take cargoes larger than the 7,500 mt that FACT is limited to are searching around for product from any source possible, but there is no word if any have been successful.
Northwest Europe:
The ammonia price held steady at $678/mt C&F as the regional market quieted down. Sources said a deal was struck with Eurochem for Baltic ammonia at $588/mt FOB for August shipment. There are other deals that appear to rely on a formula based on the Yuzhnyy price.
Southeast Asia:
Ammonia demand in Southeast Asia remains strong. Buyers are reportedly hopeful that the Ma’aden plant will restart and free up some extra ammonia from the Arab Gulf.
Indonesia exports have been helping buyers looking for material. Exports for the first half of this year were up 18 percent, to 956,000 mt from 812,000 mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. South Korea, China, and Taiwan accounted for about two-thirds of all exports in the January-June period.
June 2021 exports were up 13 percent, to 130,000 mt from 115,000 mt in June 2020. Second-quarter exports were up 23 percent, to 436,000 mt from 355,000 mt in last year’s second quarter.
Brazil:
Imports of ammonia into Brazil for January-July this year were up 82 percent, to 385,000 mt from 211,000 mt for the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main supplier was Trinidad with 370,000 mt. The remaining 15,000 mt came from Algeria.
July imports of 62,000 mt were solely from Trinidad. This amount more than doubled imports from July 2020 of 30,000 mt.