U.S. Gulf:
The NOLA potash barge market was reported in the $530-$550/st FOB range, down from the week-ago $540-$550/st FOB. There was some suggestion that NOLA prices may have been getting a bit too high to sell upriver.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $575-$605/st FOB for prompt tons in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. Pricing in the Cincinnati market spanned a broad range from $585-$605/st FOB in early August, depending on supplier.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted the potash market in a broad range at $570-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville. The Camanche market was pegged at a firm $585/st FOB for August-September tons, while the St. Paul market fell in the $565-$575/st FOB range in early August.
Nutrien on Aug. 5 announced a new posted price of $570/st FOB Midwest terminals for Q4 shipment, up $170/st from the company’s last posted price and a full $200/st higher than the summer fill price. Nutrien reported a “very tight allocation” on tons offered at the new price.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was quoted in a broad range at $545-$590/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low at Houston and the high at Catoosa. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $540/st for 60 percent white granular and $547/st for 62 percent white standard.
South Central:
The potash market was pegged in a broad range at $565-$600/st FOB in the South Central region, up $15-$40/st, depending on location, with the low reported at Memphis and the high at Little Rock.
Southeast:
Potash prices had reportedly strengthened to $600-$610/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, with the upper end reported for recent prompt offers FOB Wilmington, N.C.
China:
The Mosaic Co. believes China’s potash import buyers will need to come to the table soon for a new supply contract. The country’s portside potash inventory was below 2.3 million mt as of late July, about 35 percent lower than last year at this time, according to Jenny Wang, Mosaic’s Vice President, Global Strategy Marketing, speaking at a company earnings call on Aug. 3.
Wang pointed to very strong spring domestic demand, which pulled down inventories, and also highlighted Mosaic’s expectation that potash imports in the second half of the year will be largely slowed down.
Mosaic noted that monthly potash arrivals into China have continued to decline since March. Nevertheless, China’s potash imports in the first six months of 2021 reached 4.6 million mt, nearly 19 percent higher than last year’s 3.9 million mt over the same period, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Mosaic said it sees imports dropping to below 8 million in full-year 2021 due to insufficient supplier participation “at the relatively low” contract price of $247/mt CFR reached earlier this year with Belarusian Potash Co.
China imported 8.8 million mt of potash in 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor.“Given that China’s national potash reserve is 1.5 million mt, the available tons are really minimal,” Wang said.
Mosaic Co. President and CEO Joc O’Rourke said China will have to dip into its national potash reserve if it wants to continue to supply domestic NPK producers and the internal market. Nor does he see any appetite from international producers “needing” to ship their tons to China.
“Things are getting pretty tight for China,” he told analysts at the company’s earnings call.
O’Rourke said the current Chinese contract price of $247/mt CFR is probably “$100/mt lower” than the Southeast Asian price, which, he said, “makes it difficult for China to receive the product they need at those prices.” Consequently, Mosaic sees an early negotiation for China’s 2022 potash import volumes, and at “a significantly higher contract pricing level.”
Malaysia/Indonesia:
Mosaic said preliminary trade data shows that potash imports in Indonesia and Malaysia were up more than 20 percent year-over-year through May. The company noted that crude palm oil (CPO) prices have remained volatile but at “very high levels,” as production increases were smaller than expected and demand for both domestic and export markets stayed healthy.
Mosaic said it is “cautiously optimistic” that travel restrictions related to COVID-19 will not have a significant impact on labor and product movement in the second-half of the year. As a consequence, Mosaic has revised upward its forecast for potash shipments to the two countries for full-year 2021, to 4.9-5.1 million mt in aggregate.
Brazil:
The price of MOP at Paranagua remained steady at $670-$700/mt CFR. Sources said they do not expect to see prices dip because demand is building even as supplies are limited. Traders complain of delays in the arrival and unloading of vessels at Paranagua and other ports.
The Rondonopolis price has tightened on the lower end, moving up the average price. Sources now peg the market at $750-$800/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Imports of MOP for January-July were up 6.7 percent, to 6.3 million mt from 5.9 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers this year were Russia at 1.9 million mt, Canada at 1.8 million mt, and Belarus at 1.4 million mt. The Canadian imports were down almost 10 percent from last year, while Russian imports were up 15 percent and Belarus remained about the same.
July 2021 imports of 1.3 million mt were down only 8,000 mt from July 2020.