U.S. Gulf:
Early week trading was reported in the $530-$540/st FOB range, down from the week-ago $530-$550/st FOB. However, after the news that the U.S. was going to levy sanctions against Belarus producer Belaruskali, a big question mark was stamped on the market. Would this really impact potash imports from Belarus? Analysts quickly noted that marketer Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) was not mentioned in the sanctions.
Assuming there would be sanctions, some sources predicted higher prices for NOLA, putting price ideas back to $550/st FOB or above, though no new trades at those levels were confirmed during the week.
Nutrien retained its new pricing from the previous week, continuing to post inland terminals at $570/st, with no immediate change after the Belarus news. In an earnings call on Aug. 10, Nutrien President and CEO Mayo Schmidt expressed concern over higher prices in Brazil at $680/mt CFR, fearing the higher numbers could cause demand destruction. Others offered the same fears at NOLA.
Generally, if sanctions are indeed imposed, most were expecting a NOLA price uptick. Absent sanctions, the market could find stability at current levels. While Belarus imports make up only about 5 percent of U.S. potash imports, or approximately 550,000 mt/y, their impact on the NOLA market is much more pronounced.
Correction: The NOLA UAN price for the issue dated Aug. 6, p. 7, was $310/st. The price in the spot box was incorrectly reported at $300/st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $570-$605/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low reflecting recent offers from Nutrien for Q4 shipment. While a number of suppliers reportedly pulled offers following reports of new U.S. sanctions against Belarus producer Belaruskali, sources said Q4 pricing was still on the table during the week, at least until Aug. 13.
Potash pricing in the Cincinnati market spanned a broad range from $585-$605/st FOB, depending on supplier.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources continued to quote the prompt potash market in a broad range at $570-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville. The Camanche market was pegged at a firm $585/st FOB for August-September tons, while St. Paul pricing fell in the $565-$575/st FOB range during the week.
Southern Plains:
Intrepid on Aug. 9 announced an $80/st potash pricing increase. New postings FOB Carlsbad, N.M., firmed to $620/st for 60 percent white granular and $627/st for 62 percent white standard. The company said these levels reflect a $200/st increase over this year’s summer fill offers.
California:
Sources reported firming prices for potash in California. The market had reportedly strengthened to $695-$705/st FOB for Q4 shipment, with the low for 60 percent and the high for 62 percent MOP. Those levels were up significantly from the last prompt business in the $535-$545/st FOB range.
Pacific Northwest:
Sources reported significantly higher potash prices in the Pacific Northwest in early August. The market was quoted at $642-$652/st FOB warehouses in Washington, Oregon, and northern Idaho for Q4 shipment, with the low for 60 percent and the high for 62 percent MOP. Those levels were up from the last prompt offers in the $460-$470/st FOB range.
Intrepid announced an $80/st potash pricing increase on Aug. 9, with postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, firming to $620/st for 60 percent white granular and $615/st for 60 percent white standard.
Western Canada:
Prices were moving up dramatically for potash in Western Canada. The market was reported at a firm C$755-$765/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines for Q4 truck tons, up from C$560/mt FOB for the last prompt business. The warehouse market in Eastern Canada was also higher, with sources reporting a C$795/mt FOB level now for Q4 tons.
China:
Nutrien continues to believe that China needs to negotiate a new potash supply contract before the end of the year, as inventories in the country draw down amid continuing robust demand.
Nutrien President and CEO Mayo Schmidt reminded analysts at a company earnings call on Aug. 10 that Canpotex is already fully committed until November, and reiterated that Nutrien would continue to focus on higher netback regions than China.
The Mosaic Co. last week estimated potash inventory at China’s ports at below 2.3 million mt as of late July, about 35 percent lower than the same time last year, according to Jenny Wang, Mosaic Vice President, Global Strategy Marketing (GM Aug. 6. p. 15). The company believes China’s potash import buyers will need to come to the table soon for a new supply contract.
Brazil:
The MOP market price in Paranagua moved up to $690-$710/mt CFR. Sources said steady demand and limited availability are pushing prices higher. Some traders also said delays in the arrival of vessels with MOP have added some uncertainty that has pushed up the cost.
Demand continues inland, but mostly for October deliveries. Rondonopolis is now pegged at $770-$850/mt FOB ex-warehouse, a jump of $20-$50/mt.The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP in Sorriso is put at 40 bags of soy or 92 bags of corn. No Rondonopolis rate is available.