U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa business for September was concluded at $615/mt CFR, down $10/mt from August’s $625/mt CFR. Market participants had been predicting a rollover or a slight change up or down, citing continued strength in both the international and domestic markets, offset by ample inventories in the U.S. Gulf.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was unchanged at $645-$670/st FOB Eastern Cornbelt terminals for prompt or prepay, with the low reported for prompt tons at Lima, Ohio, and the high for either prompt or 4Q prepay offers out of northern Indiana terminals. Most terminals in Illinois were steady at the $665/st FOB level for prompt or prepay in late August.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was steady at $645-$665/st FOB for prompt or prepay in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and supplier, with the low at Hoag, Neb., and the upper end reported at Palmyra, Mo., and out of Nebraska locations at Blair and Fremont.
Southern Plains:
Prompt ammonia pricing was reported at the $615/st FOB level out of Oklahoma production points, with 4Q prepay offers pegged in the $625-$635/st FOB range. Gulf Coast terminals remained at the $570/st FOB level for prompt truck tons in late August.
South Central:
The ammonia market remained in the $570-$595/st FOB range out of regional terminals, with the high reported for the last prompt offers at Memphis, Tenn., and the low for new truck offers out of Louisiana production points. No current offers were reported out of El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Hopewell, Va.
Black Sea:
The Black Sea ammonia market is holding even at $590/mt FOB. That is expected to change in September, however, because the price of natural gas is going up on Sept. 1. The move, said one trader, could force the ammonia price to $690/mt ex-plant.
The high price and additional cost of transportation to the port will push the ammonia price beyond what buyers are willing to accept, according to sources.
India:
The FACT tender closed on Aug. 24 with no offers. Sources said the Indian company has retreated behind closed doors to figure out what to do next.
The tender was for ammonia to be shipped in the second half of September. Sources said FACT still needs the tons. They also said the tightness of the Arab Gulf market could make getting the needed tons at the right time difficult.
Middle East:
Sources said the Ma’aden plant is lining up vessels to move out its ammonia production. Ships are reportedly booked well into September.
Traders said Ma’aden will first have to repay all the tonnage it swapped with other producers and settle its own contracts before it can begin offering tons in the spot market. No extra tons are expected anytime soon. The impact of this tightness was even seen in the recent FACT tender, when no offers were put forward for 7,500 mt in late September.
The tightness of supplies in the area has killed any possible spot business, leaving the public price at $620-$630/mt FOB. Sources said contract tons, sold on a formula basis, are being loaded and shipped.
Northwest Europe:
The ammonia market is quiet, with no change in pricing. Sources said some production problems in Italy and Norway are prompting buyers to look to Black Sea and Baltic ports. One trader said more aggressive moves are based on possible purchases from Turkey.
The move away from the Baltic producers to the Black Sea, said one trader, could be a message to Baltic producers that they are not the only place to get ammonia. The move comes as September prices talks picked up. Sources said the most likely option for September pricing from the Baltic suppliers will be deals based on Black Sea pricing rather than a set price from the area.
Southeast Asia:
The return to production by Ma’aden was welcome news for buyers in Asia. Sources said it will take a while for the full impact of the return of Saudi material to be felt in Asia, but reportedly buyers are already looking at pushing for lower prices into the last quarter of the year.
China:
Ammonia imports in China were down 16.7 percent in the first seven months of the year, to 523,000 mt from 628,000 mt during the January-June period in 2020.
July 2021 imports were down 76 percent, to 23,000 mt from 95,000 mt in July 2020. The July 2021 tons came from Indonesia at 15,000 mt and Mexico at 8,000 mt. The tightness of the regional market was shown by the Mexico purchase. China made no purchases of Mexican ammonia in all of 2020, nor in the first half of this year.