U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa market continued at $615/mt CFR for September. Hurricane Ida took major Louisiana plants offline, at least for a while, with restarts expected as power and gas supplies resume.
CF on Sept. 9 said Donaldsonville, La., ammonia production had resumed. In the meantime, inland U.S. prices have moved up and international prices remain strong.
U.S. Imports:
July ammonia imports were up 33.8 percent, according to Department of Commerce (DOC) data, to 194,887 st from the year-ago 145,683 st.
U.S. Exports:
Ammonia exports were down 5.7 percent in July, to 68,289 st from 72,390 st in July 2020.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices inched higher in the Eastern Cornbelt. While most prompt or prepay offers continued to fall in the $665-$670/st FOB range out of Illinois and Indiana terminals, the market FOB Lima, Ohio, reportedly firmed to the $670/st FOB level as well, up from earlier prompt offers at $645/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was pegged in the $655-$665/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end reported at Palmyra, Mo.
Most new offers out of Oklahoma production points fell in the $625-$635/st FOB range, sources said, with demand picking up on winter wheat ground in the Southern Plains.
Northern Plains:
The Ida-related production outages sparked some inland ammonia price increases as the fall application season nears. New delivered pricing in the Northern Plains was quoted in the $655-$695/st FOB range, up from earlier fall offers at $645-$655/st DEL, while fall pricing at terminals in North Dakota and Minnesota had reportedly firmed to $655-$675/st FOB.
Great Lakes:
Ammonia pricing in the Great Lakes region was pegged at $665-$670/st FOB/st FOB terminals in northern Indiana and northern Ohio for fall tons. No current offers were confirmed FOB Courtright, Ont.
Black Sea:
Ammonia prices remained stable at $590/mt FOB, mostly because there was no activity. Sources said the dearth of available material limited shipments to only already contracted tons.
The high cost of natural gas to Ukraine is making production of ammonia difficult. Sources said whatever tons are being turned out will be to cover existing deals and then for domestic use. Most likely, said one source, the plants will close.
There is some Russian material available, sources said, but not enough to begin to rebuild the spot market in the region.
Middle East:
Reports circulated of ammonia sold to IFFCO by Muntajat. Reportedly, the tonnage was limited and both sides are keeping mum about the price. Rumors suggest the deal was done on a formula basis.
The Ma’aden situation remains foggy. Sources said they are not sure if the ammonia plant actually has started or if the company is just diverting ammonia from their problematic phosphate operation.
Northwest Europe:
So far, the ammonia price is holding at $700/mt C&F. However, sources said the rising cost of natural gas in Europe could change that.
The increase in gas costs could push plants to the point where it is no longer profitable to produce their own ammonia. At that point, the companies will shift to importing the product in an already tight market. Sources said some inquiries are already making the rounds in the industry to do just that.
Southeast Asia:
Sources said the Southeast Asia ammonia market has gone quiet. The steady demand for product is being handled by long-term contracts, with nothing available for a spot deal.
Brazil:
Ammonia imports for January-August 2021 were up 71 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 436,000 mt from 255,000 mt during the same period in 2020. The bulk of the tonnage came from Trinidad and Tobago at 416,000 mt.
August 2021 imports were up 15 percent, to 51,000 mt from 44,000 mt in August 2020. Trinidad and Tobago supplied 46,000 mt of the tonnage during the period, with the remaining 5,000 mt coming from Colombia. Sources said the Colombian tonnage normally comes from excess material held by Monomeros.