U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
The market was still awaiting closure on Tampa prices for October. Sources expect the huge run up in natural gas prices in Europe, followed by ammonia plant shutdowns, to have an impact on Tampa, even though Mosaic will be needing less ammonia in the near term due to a 300,000 mt reduction in phosphate production in the wake of Hurricane Ida and a phosphoric acid problem at New Wales.
In the NOLA area, IPL’s Waggaman, La., plant lost a month’s worth of ammonia production. Likewise, CF’s Donaldsonville and Nutrien’s Geismar plants in Louisiana also had significant short-term outages.
Nutrien confirmed that it was bringing in 10,000 mt from Trinidad to the U.S. Gulf to cover its own commitments and lost Geismar production. The landed price was put at $645/mt CFR, which compares to Tampa’s $615/mt CFR for September. Yara is pulling from its U.S., Trinidad, and Australian plants to cover for its own idled European ammonia production.
In general, sell-side players were predicting at least a $20-$30/mt uptick in Tampa prices for October.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices were pegged at $690-$710/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt at midweek, up another $20-$30/st from last report, with the lower end of the range reported at Lima, Ohio, and the high in Indiana. The common terminal price in Illinois was quoted at the $705/st FOB level in late September.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices continued to firm in the Western Cornbelt. Sources quoted the market at $710-$730/st FOB in the region for prompt tons, up $35/st from the previous week, with the low reported in Iowa and the upper end FOB Hoag, Neb. Posted prices FOB Enid, Okla., also moved up, to $695/st for prompt shipment.
California:
The ammonia market in California remained at $710/st DEL for anhydrous and $187/st FOB for aqua.
Pacific Northwest:
The ammonia market in the Pacific Northwest was quoted at $695/st FOB regional terminals and $750-$760/st DEL, depending on location. Aqua prices edged up to $182/st FOB Washington terminals in mid-September.
Western Canada:
Ammonia pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$1,050-$1,090/mt DEL in late September, depending on location, reflecting an increase of C$40-$60/mt since the beginning of the month.
Black Sea:
Plant closures continue in the area due to higher gas prices. Sources reported that Odessa Port Plant stopped, removing 1.1 million mt/y of production capacity from the market. October shipments will have to depend on what TOAZ can ship – about 170,000 mt – and what got sent to the port by Rossosh before they shut down for a planned October turnaround.
The material making its way to loading facilities all seems to be booked under long-term contracts, leaving nothing for the spot market. In the absence of any spot deals, industry watchers speculated that if any tons were available, they could easily be sold above $600/mt FOB.
Middle East:
Area ammonia supplies remain tight and limited to contract sales. Sources said the lack of tons is so severe that no one is even speculating what prices would be if some material was available.
Reports are circulating that a Taiwan buyer closed a deal at $580/mt CFR for an equivalent netback to the Arab Gulf of $510-$520/mt FOB. These prices are seen as out of line for both the Asian and Arab Gulf markets. One trader said the deal looks to have been done with the idea that Ma’aden would be back online and providing some surplus in an otherwise tight market. Unfortunately for buyers, Ma’aden is not yet producing for export, with little indication as to when that will happen.
Another deal to Deepak in India from Saudi Arabia via Trafigura was reported, but without pricing or quantity.
India:
The only cargoes that seem to be entering the country are based on long-term contracts or some other form of formula-based pricing. Sources said without a spot deal, the price remains around $670/mt CFR.
The tightness of the ammonia market seems to even have FACT stepping back from buying ammonia and focusing on sulfuric acid purchases for its plants.
Northwest Europe:
Continent-wide closures of ammonia plants are impacting availability and pricing. Even the announcement that the British government will help keep the CF Billingham plant open did not cheer up ammonia market watchers.
Borealis AG announced it was curtailing its European ammonia production. This latest victim of higher natural gas prices just added more incentive for North American ammonia to be imported. Sources said the situation in Europe, coupled with the tight availability in the Arab Gulf, should be a boon for North American ammonia producers looking to sell more product.
So far, no new price mark has become clear in the Northwest European market. Sources said everyone is still trying to figure out how long this situation will last and what remedies might be found to get around it.
At the same time, Baltic producers are reportedly thinking of starting off their October price talks at $650/mt FOB, a $60/mt jump from September.
Southeast Asia:
The reports of a deal into Taiwan at $580/mt CFR are viewed with skepticism, given the tightness of the global market and the steady demand in the area. One trader said if that price is to be believed, then the market dropped $100/mt overnight when every other location is going up.
Kaltim and PAU in Indonesia are getting ready for their scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Sources said they should be able to service their customers with reserved product, but no more than that.
China:
Imports of ammonia in China for January through August were down 15.9 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 600,000 mt from 713,000 mt during the same period last year.The top two suppliers were Indonesia at 245,000 mt and Saudi Arabia at 124,000 mt.
August 2021 imports were down 10 percent, to 77,000 mt from 86,000 mt in August 2020. The top suppliers were Indonesia at 46,000 mt, Ukraine at 15,000 mt, and Malaysia at 15,000 mt.