Central Florida:
The market quickly shook off rumors of an ongoing shutdown at Mosaic’s phosphate productions facility at New Wales, Fla., after a Mosaic source categorically denied the report’s validity.
“New Wales is running and will continue to run,” the contact said. “We provided information on an equipment failure at New Wales in our September 2nd announcement. The tonnage estimate impact provided … on Q3 stands.”
Driven by pervading market tightness, Central Florida DAP and MAP postings were seen moving higher for the week. Truck-loaded DAP values firmed to $655/st FOB from the week-ago $640/st FOB, while MAP trucks lifted to $685/st FOB from $670/st FOB in the prior report.
MAP trucks loading from North Florida were posted at $700/st FOB, a $30/st increase from the $670/st FOB week-ago posting.
U.S. Gulf:
Market players noted a flat start to the NOLA barge phosphate market, with prices moving up as the week wore on.
Sellers confirmed a handful of early-week DAP trades at a $635/st FOB low, with subsequent offers seen firming to $650/st FOB by Sept. 23. Trading was generally reported at a $675/st FOB high for the period, edging up from the prior $673/st FOB top.
Domestically produced MAP indications started the trading week at $665/st FOB before lifted to $680/st FOB on Sept. 23, sources said, while most import offers continued in the $700-$710/st FOB range. Trading was reported lifting to $730/st FOB on Sept. 23, sources said, while a $750/st FOB offer reportedly did not find a buyer on Sept. 23.
DAP barges loading from NOLA were quoted in the $635-$675/st FOB range for the full Sept. 17-23 trading week, up from $635-$673/st FOB the week before. With few trades confirmed, full-week MAP offers and indications firmed to $665-$730/st FOB, up from the week-ago $665-$710/st FOB.
U.S. Exports:
No new business was heard out of the Gulf phosphate export market for the week. As a result, pricing continued at a last-reported $660/mt FOB for DAP and $685/mt FOB for MAP.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP prices surged to $705-$725/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up roughly $15-$35/st from the previous week, with the low reported at Cincinnati at the beginning of the week. The MAP market firmed to $735-$775/st FOB in the region, with the low again confirmed at Cincinnati early in the week.
In the Southeast, Nutrien reported that it raised MAP pricing at Aurora, N.C., to $700/st FOB during the week, up $30/st from the prior week.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing remained in a broad range at $685-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market pegged at $700-$710/st FOB. MAP was quoted at $725-$770/st FOB in the region, with the same range reported at Catoosa/Inola and St. Paul.
California:
MAP pricing in California was up another $20-$40/st from last report, to $785-$805/st rail-DEL or FOB French Camp, Helm, Richvale, Dixon, and El Centro, with the higher numbers reported later in the week.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP prices early in the week were reported at $775/st FOB or DEL in Washington, Oregon and Nevada, and $765/st DEL in Idaho, Utah and Montana, up $25/st from early September. As the week progressed, however, prices moved up an additional $20/st, to $785-$795/st DEL in the region.
Western Canada:
MAP prices in mid-September firmed to C$1,085-$1,100/mt DEL in Western Canada, reflecting a C$70/mt increase from last report. Warehouse pricing in the region reportedly jumped to C$1,040-$1,060/mt FOB, up C$40/mt from the first of the month.
Saudi Arabia:
The Saudi Arabia phosphates market was noted strengthening to the $635-$650/mt FOB range, up from $630-$645/mt FOB at last report.
India:
Sources reported offers for DAP in the upper-$670s/mt CFR, while local media quoted prices at $672/mt CFR. The rising price is continuing to cause concern about the need for additional subsidies.
The government already added US$2 billion to the subsidy budget in June to help ease pressure on farmers facing higher DAP prices. Now, according to local media reports, the government is ready to add another US$1.13 billion to help cover DAP subsidies.
The extra money will be needed, said international traders. Even as levels in the $670s/mt CFR represent unusually high prices, sources expect the price to keep rising. The current quoted price in China is in the $650s/mt FOB, which translates closer to about $690/mt CFR into India.
Sources said some farmers are looking at DAP purchases to make up for limited supplies of urea in their regions. Reportedly the farmers are desperate for nitrogen and are willing to use DAP or other fertilizers with nitrogen to get it.
Pakistan:
Sources reported DAP deals with Chinese producers into Pakistan at $680/mt CFR. This price matches with the deals reportedly taking place in India in the $670s/mt CFR.
China:
Sources said DAP producers are now quoting $650/mt FOB for their product. If achieved, sources said the Indian price could be pushed into the $690s/mt CFR.Based on the latest deals reported in India and Pakistan, the netback to China is around $630/mt FOB.
Sources expect to see cutbacks in DAP and MAP availability. They point to aggressive environmental inspectors who are fining plants that are out of compliance with the stringent environmental laws. Some of the penalties will require plants to shut down until the violations are corrected. At the same time, the phosphate producers face the same edict that could limit urea exports.
The National Development and Reform Commission told producers to first look to the domestic market before considering exports. Sources said the commission could impose export duties or ban exports if, in its view, there is not enough DAP or MAP available for the local market at a reasonable price.
The fear of shutdowns related to environmental inspections and limited export possibilities has led some plants to cut back on ordering inputs such as sulfur and ammonia. One trader said the rising cost of these inputs and the possibility that they may not be needed is making some plant operators think twice before ordering the imports.
Chinese DAP exports for January through August were reported at 3.6 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This represents a 31.8 percent increase from the 4.75 million mt exported during the same period last year. The main buyers so far this year were all in Asia.
| Receiving Country | Chinese DAP Exports (‘000 mt) | |
| Jan-Aug 2020 | Jan-Aug 2021 | |
| India | 1,300 | 1,200 |
| Pakistan | 389 | 668 |
| Thailand | 359 | 534 |
| Bangladesh | 70 | 397 |
August 2021 DAP exports of 550,000 mt showed a 31.5 percent decrease from the August 2020 amount of 802,000 mt. Bangladesh and Pakistan were the top buyers.
Chinese MAP exports for January through August were reported at 3.1 million mt, up 83 percent from the 1.7 million mt exported during the same period last year. Latin American buyers dominated the exports this year at 2.3 million mt, a 252 percent increase from the 921,000 mt exported to that region during the same period in 2020. Sales to Latin America accounted for 74 percent of China’s MAP exports in the first eight months of the year.
August 2021 MAP exports of 573,000 mt showed a 148 percent decrease from the August 2020 amount of 231,000 mt. Brazil, Argentina, and Chile were the top three buyers.
Brazil:
Paranagua reported MAP prices steady at $710-$725, reflecting just a minor upward adjustment at the lower end of the range. Sources said the main focus is now transporting the product rather than securing more tons.
The Rondonopolis price moved to a flat $850/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP held steady at 100 bags of corn at Sorriso.