U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia prices for November are expected to see a significant increase from October’s $665/mt CFR. European plant outages and skyrocketing domestic ammonia prices are cited as the main drivers.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Prices continued to climb for ammonia in the region. Sources said limited ammonia offers were now solidly at the $1,090-$1,100/st FOB level in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the higher numbers in Indiana and Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
The last confirmed ammonia prices remained at $1,085-$1,090/st FOB in Nebraska and $1,090-$1,110/st FOB in Iowa, depending on location. Sources reported pricing offers out of Oklahoma terminals firmly at the $1,000/st FOB level at midweek.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia prices continued to surge in the Northern Plains, with reports of limited new offers in North Dakota and Minnesota firming to $1,210-$1,240/st FOB, up from the last confirmed business in the $1,000-$1,125/st FOB range during the previous week. Sources reported difficulty sourcing new bids as the week progressed, however, with a number of producers reportedly sold out of product.
No current delivered ammonia prices were reported in the region, although new offers are expected at the end of the month when the Dakota Gasification plant in Beulah, N.D., returns to production after a planned turnaround in October.
Pacific Northwest:
New pricing indications in the Pacific Northwest saw truck-DEL ammonia firming to $1,100-$1,130/st during the week, up from the last official postings at the $900/st truck-DEL level in late September.
Black Sea:
The spot price remains in the $700s/mt FOB, only because there are no spot tons available to explore new price marks. The limited number of tons from the area all seem to be tied to contracts and formula-based deals.
Sources said transportation through the Bosporus Straits is proceeding smoothly. Even the fog that often comes at this time of year has done little to hinder the smooth transfer from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
Middle East:
There were reports circulating that 10,000 mt of ammonia is being offered to a European buyer from the UAE. Industry watchers are tossing around a price of $900/mt C&F for a netback of $800/mt FOB to the Arab Gulf. However, sources said nothing has been confirmed at that level, leaving the Arab Gulf price in the $620/mt FOB range.
The higher price is expected to be hit soon, however. Sources said $800/mt FOB out of the Arab Gulf is a rational price, given the tightness of the market and the limited supplies due to high natural gas prices.
Iranian ammonia exports for the first nine months of the year were up 32 percent, to 448,000 mt from 339,000 mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main buyers of Iranian ammonia this year were India at 298,000 mt, China at 71,000 mt, and Taiwan at 68,000 mt.
Third-quarter 2021 exports were down 23 percent, to 132,000 mt from 172,000 mt during the same period in 2020. September 2021 exports were reported at 25,000 mt, compared to September 2020 exports of 88,000 mt.
India:
Only contract tons seem to be flowing into India. Sources said the lack of tonnage from major suppliers means Indian buyers will need to keep searching for the tons they need, and must be prepared to pay more for each ton.
Northwest Europe:
No new deals have happened to move the price off the $800-$810/mt C&F mark. Talk of a possible sale into Europe from the UAE could move prices to $900/mt C&F, but no new deals at that higher level have been reported so far.
Sources said buyers are anxious for tons and appear willing to pay for what they need. More cargoes are coming into Europe from Trinidad to fill in the gaps created by cutbacks in production in Eastern and Central Europe, as well as the tightness in the Arab Gulf.
The unscheduled shutdown of the Grondo plant will further tighten ammonia supplies into Europe. Sources said the company has not announced how long the repairs are expected to take.
Southeast Asia:
Sources said the ammonia prices being quoted in the area are artificially low because of the long-term, formula-based deals that dominate the market. One trader said the contracts will soon be ending and buyers will face much higher prices.
Adding to the tightness in the region, sources said the PAU joint-venture facility remains down for routine maintenance and is expected to be down for the rest of October. At the same time, Kaltim is focusing more on urea production, therefore having less ammonia for sale.
South Korean imports of ammonia for January through September 2021 were reported at 1.1 million mt, up 20 percent from the 928,000 mt imported during the same period in 2020, Trade Data Monitor reported.
Third-quarter imports were reported at 384,000 mt for 2021, compared with 314,000 mt during the same period in 2020.September 2021 imports of 116,000 mt were down from September 2020 imports of 128,000 mt.
Chinese ammonia imports for the first nine months of the year were down 20 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 665,000 mt from 829,000 mt during the same period in 2020.Third-quarter imports were down 44 percent, to 166,000 mt from 296,000 mt, while September imports were reported at 65,000 mt, compared with 115,000 mt in September 2020.