Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko late this week threatened to shut down a key pipeline carrying Russia gas to the European Union (E.U.) if Poland closes the border as thousands of migrants seek to cross into the European bloc.
About 20 percent of Russian gas flowing to the E.U. crossed Belarusian territory this year, mainly via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, according to a Bloomberg report.
“We’re heating Europe and they are threatening us that they will close the border,” Lukashenko said at a meeting with Belarus government officials on Nov. 11, the country’s state-owned news agency BelTA reported, as cited by Bloomberg.
Lukshenko’s threat comes as gas prices in Europe have surged to record levels in recent weeks, forcing several major nitrogen fertilizer producers to curtail their European ammonia production, and in some cases, their downstream production.
Benchmark European next-month gas futures – on the Dutch TTF – rose 7.1 percent to €75.2 a megawatt hour by 4.59 pm (GMT) on Nov. 11.
Natural gas prices in Europe had eased back late last month following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to Russian state-run gas producer Gazprom PJSC to start refilling European gas-storage facilities in November (GM Oct. 29, p. 1). Gazprom is Europe’s biggest gas supplier.
Poland estimated that 4,000 migrants may be in the forests along the border, and even more on route to the frontier area from Belarus’s capital. Neighboring Lithuania, facing a similar problem, called on the United Nations to open a humanitarian corridor in Belarus.
E.U. countries accuse Lukashenko of luring Middle Eastern migrants to his country so he can send them across the border in retaliation for existing sanctions. At the E.U.’s request, on Nov. 11 Turkey agreed to monitor flights to Belarus, including the suspension of sales of one-way tickets, according to Bloomberg. Turkish Airlines agreed to restrict ticket sales from Istanbul to Minsk for citizens of countries that have been among the primary ones involved in the migrant flows, particularly Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
The E.U. currently is considering more sanctions against the Lukashenko government over the migrant crisis. In June, the E.U. put sanctions on Belarus potash soon after Lukashenko’s crackdown on domestic opposition and the grounding of a Ryanair flight to detain an activist (GM June 25, p. 1; Oct. 22, p. 33).
If the recent Belarus/E.U. dust up was not enough, the U.S. has warned the E.U. about a Russian buildup on the Ukraine border, according to a Bloomberg report.
With Washington closely monitoring a buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border, U.S. officials have briefed E.U. counterparts on their concerns over a possible military operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The assessments are believed to be based on information the U.S. hasn’t yet shared with European governments, which would have to happen before any decision is made on a collective response, sources said. They are backed up by publicly-available evidence, according to officials familiar with the administration’s thinking.
A White House official said Thursday evening that the U.S. was consulting with allies over the buildup, considered Ukraine a partner, and denounced any and all aggressive acts by Russia.
Russia said military deployments on its territory are an internal matter and it denies any aggressive intentions, while accusing the U.S. of provocation by sailing warships in the Black Sea close to its territory this week.
Similar tensions erupted in the spring, when the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization accused Russia of massing as many as 100,000 troops, tanks, and warplanes near the border with Ukraine. The crisis eased after U.S. President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin and offered a summit that took place in June.
Russia’s latest movement of troops and tanks toward Ukraine spurred CIA Director Bill Burns to visit Moscow this month, where he spoke by phone with Putin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also asked Putin in a call on Wednesday to use his influence with Russia’s ally Belarus to defuse a crisis over thousands of Middle East migrants seeking to cross the border with Poland into the E.U. Putin declined.
Merkel and Putin spoke again on Thursday about Ukraine and Belarus, the Kremlin said in a statement. The Russian leader criticized Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones in violation of a previous agreement and American military activity in the Black Sea, according to the statement.
The U.S. warning over Ukraine comes on top of the more recent standoff between Poland and Belarus, a close Russian ally. And it is playing out amid uncertainty over increased Russian gas supplies to Europe despite Putin’s pledge to ramp up deliveries from this week to ease an energy crunch. He is pushing for European regulators to give swift approval to operate the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, a project the U.S. and Ukraine opposed as a security risk.
Russia does not intend to start a war with Ukraine now, though Moscow should show it is ready to use force if necessary, one person close to the Kremlin said. An offensive is unlikely, as Russian troops would face public resistance in Kyiv and other cities, but there is a plan to respond to provocations from Ukraine, another official said.