U.S. Gulf:
While some sellers continued to push for prices near the $700/st FOB mark, others sources said those higher numbers had still not been achieved, leaving the range at $670-$685/st FOB.
With Vancouver area flooding having an impact on Canadian potash exports, Canpotex said it was looking at alternative ports such as Portland, Ore., as well as New Brunswick. While this could cause some delays in Canadian offshore exports, others speculated that it could ultimately mean more potash would be made available to the U.S. market.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was quoted at $715-$730/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the Cincinnati market unchanged at $715-$725/st FOB at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing narrowed to $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at St. Louis.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was pegged at a solid $730/st FOB Houston or Catoosa/Inola. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $675/st FOB for 60 percent white granular and $695/st FOB for 62 percent white standard.
South Central:
The potash market had reportedly inched up to $725-$745/st FOB in the South Central region, up $5/st from last report, with the lower end of the range confirmed out of Arkansas terminals and the high at Memphis.
Southeast:
Potash pricing was quoted at a firm $755/st FOB Wilmington in mid-November, up $55/st from last report.
Israel/India:
ICL Group on Nov. 17 said it has reached an agreement with Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) to increase the price of 150,000 mt of potash delivered to India in 2021 to $445/mt CIFFO Indian ports, while a balance of 150,000 mt still outstanding will be allocated to other ICL customers.
The new price is a full $165/mt higher than the original contract price of $280/mt CIFFO for potash deliveries through end-December 2021, negotiated between the two parties in early April (GM April 9, p. 17). The original ICL-IPL deal was for the supply of an aggregate 600,000 mt of potash, with mutual options for an additional 50,000 mt.
The $445/mt CFR price was reported to have been secured by Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) in late September in a tender award by RCF for the supply of 105,000 mt of white/pink standard potash (GM Sept. 24, p. 16). However, Green Markets was unable at the time to independently confirm the award or the price level. Under the original tender requirement, the tons were for delivery in three lots of 35,000 mt, with the first shipment to arrive on or before Oct. 15, the second on or before Nov. 15, and the third lot by Dec. 21.
The $280/mt CFR price became the new Indian contract price for 2021 deliveries following the ICL deal in April with IPL. BPC, which had been the first supplier to reach a new contract supply agreement with India this year, also reached a fresh deal with IPL in early April at the new contract price of $280/mt CFR.
BPC and IPL had originally negotiated a new supply contract for 2021 deliveries in January at $247/mt CFR (GM Jan. 29, p. 17). That price level had prompted dismay and criticism from other major suppliers who believed the price was not reflective of prevailing market trends (GM Feb. 5, p. 16).
No other major supplier publicly disclosed whether they had renegotiated the contract price for their remaining committed contract tons to India in 2021 following the BPC-RCF tender award. It is also unclear what volumes remain to be shipped under existing 2021 supply contracts.
Despite India’s potash demand being supported by a normal monsoon forecast and increased crop prices, India’s potash imports have declined this year due to supply constraints and tightening inventories. Potash imports through September were down 30 percent from last year, at 2.55 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Nutrien, for example, sees Indian potash imports reaching only 2.7-3.2 million mt in calendar 2021, according to the company’s third-quarter earnings presentation on Nov. 2. This compares with 5 million mt in calendar 2022, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Brazil:
Concerns about the timely delivery of product remains at the forefront of market discussions. Buyers have been waiting for vessels to dock with their cargo. At the same time, they are also worried whether there will be enough trucks to move the MOP once it is unloaded.
The price in Paranagua is now put at $800-$830/mt CFR, opening up the range just a bit from the previous week.The Rondonopolis price was pegged at $930-$940/mt FOB ex-warehouse.The barter rate in Mato Grosso improved a bit for farmers, to 105 bags of corn for 1 mt of MOP.