Potash is not on the U.S. Department of Interior’s draft list of 50 mineral commodities for inclusion on the 2021 list of critical minerals; it was on the 2018 list, which included 35 minerals. The 2018 list was in response to Executive Order 13817, a federal strategy to ensure secure and reliable supplies of critical minerals.
The strategy directed DOI to locate domestic supplies of those minerals, ensure access to information necessary for the study and production of minerals, and expedite permitting for minerals projects.
However, according to Michigan Potash & Salt Co. CEO Ted Pagano, “the new infrastructure legislation included strategic and critical minerals to encourage domestic onboarding and investment to ensure adequate domestic supply. The loss of this designation would shift any pending incentive or legislation away from the only critical mineral responsible for food security and farmer welfare. Interestingly, Canada has it on their list, and on a per capita basis, has an overwhelming supply.”
Pagano said the DOI proposal appears short-sighted and is coming at a time when product is unavailable, inflation is pressing, and food security is threatened globally. “Clearly, the oligopoly is unwilling or unable to supply our current need at a time when it is needed most, which principally includes Canada.”
Green Markets potash prices for the Great Lakes on Nov. 19 stood at $720-$750/st FOB versus the year-ago $290-$294/st FOB.
Michigan Potash & Salt, a junior project, has been in the works for some time in Evart Township in Osceola County, with the company just recently receiving its air permit from the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes & Energy (EGLE). Pagano said the project has widespread support from many grower associations and union labor demonstrating a clear need, including West Michigan Building Trades, Michigan Corn Growers, Michigan Farm Bureau, Michigan Wheat Program, Michigan Agri-Business Association, Michigan Soybean Association, and Michigan Ag Commodities.
According to a Nov. 9, 2021, Federal Register notice, potash, rhenium, and strontium, which were on the 2018 list, did not meet the quantitative threshold for 2021. All three have supply risk scores just below the quantitative threshold.
“These three commodities all had very high trade exposure but low disruption potential,” said the notice. “This reflects the fact that, while the United States was highly net import reliant for all three commodities, the production of these minerals was either not highly concentrated or was concentrated in countries considered to be reliable trade partners. Any changes in the supply chain dynamics of these commodities will be closely monitored but none of the three is recommended for inclusion on the 2021 draft list of critical minerals.”
Total U.S. potash imports in fertilizer year 2021 were 10.4 million mt, with Canadian tons representing approximately 75 percent. However, the U.S. and the E.U. both have sanctions on Belarus potash producer Belaruskali, though as has been noted, that does not specify Belarusian Potash Co., (BPC) which actually markets the potash. Belaruskali reportedly owns only a minority stake (48 percent) in BPC.
Phosphates did not make it on the 2018 or 2021 lists. DOI said that while it may be an essential mineral, its supply chain vulnerability is mitigated by domestic production, lack of import dependence, and diverse, secure sources of supply. A recent trade action by The Mosaic Co., Tampa, was successful in placing duties on major phosphate producers Morocco and Russia. The case is under appeal to the U.S. Court of International Trade.
DOI is soliciting comments on the critical mineral proposals before Dec. 9, 2021. They may be submitted online at http://www.regulations.gov by entering “DOI-2021-xxxx” in the search bar, or by mail to Draft List of Critical Minerals, MS-102, U.S. Geological Survey, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, Va., 20192. For more information contact James Mosley at 703.648.6312 or jmosley@usgs.gov.