U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for December continued at $990/mt CFR, with the last NOLA barge business reported at $1,030/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported ammonia running hard in parts of central and southern Illinois at midweek, although activity was slowed by wet conditions in northern areas of the state. Ammonia pricing continued to firm, fueled by short supply and heavy fall demand.
The ammonia market was quoted at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals, up from the prior week’s $1,285-$1,350/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Lima, Ohio. Most Illinois and Indiana terminals were reported in the $1,350-$1,400/st FOB range where tons were still available, with the low confirmed for limited truck offers FOB East Dubuque, Ill.
Western Cornbelt:
Mild, dry weather conditions in early December allowed plenty of fall ammonia application in the region during the week. “The Western Cornbelt is still going hard, and this thing will continue until weather shuts us out,” commented one regional source.
“Fall volumes are very strong,” added another contact at midweek. “We are still running both ammonia and dries.”
Prompt ammonia pricing ranged broadly at $1,300-$1,450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt during the week, with the low reported at Garner, Iowa, and the high at Wever, Iowa. The last business in Nebraska was pegged at the $1,325/st FOB level. Multiple locations remained out of product, however.
In the Southern Plains, new ammonia offers were confirmed at $1,300/st FOB Coffeyville, Kan., up $25/st from the previous week, with Oklahoma terminals at Pryor and Verdigris reportedly not taking orders. Pricing for truck tons FOB Gulf Coast terminals was pegged at $950-$1,000/st FOB, up from $850-$950/st FOB at last report.
Northern Plains:
The first spring prepay ammonia program came out on Dec. 2, with N-7 reportedly offering $1,575/st FOB Beulah, N.D., for limited tons. No other ammonia pricing was reported in the region, either for prompt or prepay, with expectations that a new delivered price may be out within the week.
The last prompt ammonia pricing in the Northern Plains fell in the $1,300-$1,400/st FOB range, but sources said those offers were no longer on the table and fall demand in the region is now over.
Black Sea:
Sources reported an ammonia sale late this week of 4,000-5,000 mt out of Yuzhnyy at $930/mt FOB. The reported buyer was Trammo. The source of the material was unclear.
One trader said the high prices seen in the ammonia market are making it possible for some Ukrainian plants to once again offer product on the global market. The high price of natural gas as a feedstock has kept the Ukrainian plants either shut down or supplying product only for the domestic market.
Looking after the domestic market will remain the focus of Ukrainian producers, sources said. However, when opportunities arise for smaller lots to be sold at a price sufficiently high enough, sources said the companies will take a chance on the global market.
Sources also said OCP may have contracted with Koch to pick up extra material in Turkey. The rumors also said the vessel booked may instead be getting in the queue early to clear the entrance to the Black Sea before heading to Yuzhnyy for a scheduled cargo pick up.
Middle East:
Sources confirmed a Saudi sale at $900/mt FOB. Reportedly, the sale of 15,000 mt was to Trammo for a December loading.The consensus is that the tons will be sent to Southeast Asia, where rumors of a deal at $975/mt CFR fit nicely with the Saudi deal.
The 15,000 mt sold was the exception to the accepted situation in the region. Sources said all the producers are up and running, but demand is so strong that they only have material to cover contracts or other long-term arrangements, leaving precious few tons for a spot sale. Even with spot material available, sources said few buyers are willing to pay the current high rates.
India:
The only reported movement into India involves tons purchased under contracts or other forms of formula-based pricing. The last spot deal showed a price into India at $670/mt CFR. Even buyers said this price is no longer available, and discussions are now at $800/mt CFR.
The problem both sides face, however, is that the large number of contracted tons is artificially keeping the price into India lower than many think it should be.
Occasional queries for spot tons from Indian buyers are right around $800/mt CFR. Suppliers, however, note that a couple of weeks ago even $800/mt FOB would have been too low to attract a counteroffer from a producer. With the latest SABIC sale at $900/mt FOB, sellers are now looking closer to $1,000 mt FOB.
No spot deals have been done for some time. Even FACT, which has depended on almost monthly tenders for its urea, has gone silent. Sources speculated that the company may be getting its ammonia from the ammonia supplies held by other Indian companies, and those companies most likely get their ammonia from formula-based deals.
Northwest Europe:
The announcement by Yara that its ammonia plants are back up and running came as prices in the area moved up. Sources reported that a deal from Yara to a German buyer at $1,100/mt CFR was more than enough to allow the plants to restart.
Sources said the Yara deal could have an equivalent netback from the Baltic at $950/mt FOB. From this calculation and another deal recently closed, sources said the Northwest Europe price would be $1,030-$1,040/mt C&F.
Reportedly, there is still no settled December price for ammonia out of the Baltic ports. Sources said, however, the Yara deal at $1,100/mt CFR would be a good indicator that the price might have to end up around $950/mt FOB.
Thailand:
January-October 2021 ammonia imports were reported at 355,000 mt, up 22.5 percent from the same period in 2020. The main suppliers, according to Trade Data Monitor, were Malaysia at 227,000 mt and Australia at 81,000 mt.
October imports this year were up a whopping 200 percent, to 49,000 mt from 16,000 mt in October 2020 The tonnage was divided between Malaysia at 30,000 mt and Indonesia at 19,000 mt.